Full Breakdown
Texas Barbecue Faces Crisis as Beef Shortage Drives Prices to Record Highs
6/7/2026, 12:39:27 PM
Record Beef Shortage and Soaring Prices
Texas barbecue restaurants are closing or struggling as U.S. cattle supply hits a 75-year low, pushing beef prices to unprecedented levels. Prime-grade brisket now costs $6.55 per pound, up from under $5 three months earlier.
Drivers of the Cattle Decline
Multiple factors have reduced herd size: prolonged droughts limited grazing, forcing ranchers to sell cattle; high fuel and fertilizer costs linked to the Iran war raised production expenses; and rebuilding herds takes years, extending the shortage.
Key Players in the Texas Barbecue Landscape
The Texas Restaurant Association, led by President and CEO Emily Williams Knight, represents thousands of eateries. Pitmasters such as Russell Roegels of Roegels Barbecue Co., and ranch owners Tom Laird (Black Star Wagyu Ranch) and Ray Law (Law Ranch and Cattle) are directly affected. Economist Gbenga Ajilore of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities provides market analysis.
Numbers Illustrating the Crisis
USDA data confirm the herd is at its lowest in seven decades. The Consumer Price Index shows ground-beef prices up nearly 15 % year-over-year. Brisket sandwich prices rose from $0.29 in 2019 to almost $6 today, a 40-50 % increase for restaurants. Pitmasters report paying $6.55 per pound for brisket, a rise of over $1.50 in three months.
Impact on Restaurants and Consumers
Rising input costs have forced closures of iconic spots such as Kirby’s BBQ in New Caney and Brett’s BBQ Shop in Katy. Restaurant owners report that brisket now accounts for 45 % of monthly food spend, straining profit margins. Consumers face higher menu prices and limited availability of traditional Texas brisket.
Official Industry Responses
The Texas Restaurant Association warns that price normalization depends on herd replenishment, a process that cannot be completed within months. Economists cited by the association say relief may take several years, with prices likely remaining elevated for four to five years. USDA officials emphasize that cattle numbers cannot be quickly rebuilt.
Voices from the Pit
Russell Roegels describes daily anxiety over price volatility and urges patrons to diversify protein choices, noting that 45 % of his $100,000 monthly grocery bill is brisket. He emphasizes that brisket defines Texas barbecue and asks customers to support local joints.
Criticism of Market Conditions
Industry observers criticize the lack of immediate solutions, pointing to the combination of drought-driven herd loss and rising input costs as unsustainable pressure on small, family-run barbecue establishments. Some pitmasters report losing friends’ restaurants that could not absorb the price surge.
Conflicting Data and Information Gaps
While USDA reports a 75-year low in cattle, precise national beef price indices for specific cuts like brisket are not disclosed, leaving uncertainty about the full scope of the shortage. Ground-beef CPI data show a 15 % increase, but comparable figures for prime-grade brisket are absent.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The biggest reason that the price of beef is so high is that the supply of cattle has been diminishing,” — Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
- “Four years ago, it cost about 29 cents for the brisket on a sandwich. That is almost $6 today, and that's before you add potentially 12 hours of labor [cost], because brisket's very labor-intensive,” — Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO, Texas Restaurant Association
- “The biggest concern for us in the barbecue industry is how high is it gonna go,” — Russell Roegels, owner, Roegels Barbecue Co.
- “The herd --- we're at a 75-year low, and the demand hasn't changed, but the herd population has, and a lot of it has to do with the drought situation,” — Tom Laird, owner, Black Star Wagyu Ranch
- “I think we're at a point where these are the highest prices we've ever seen,” — Davey Griffin, extension meats specialist
Outlook and Potential Solutions
Experts project that rebuilding the cattle herd will require several years, keeping beef prices elevated for at least four to five years. In the interim, pitmasters encourage customers to patronize local barbecue venues and consider alternative proteins such as pork, chicken, or turkey to sustain operations.
