Carbon Dioxide Removal Efforts Lag Behind Climate Targets, Report Finds

A new analysis finds that deliberate human interventions remove about 2.2 billion metric tons of CO2 per year—roughly five percent of global emissions. Most removal comes from tree planting; direct-air-capture (DAC) contributes only 0.1 percent. The figure excludes natural sinks and focuses on deliberate interventions.

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The IPCC calls carbon removal “unavoidable” for limiting warming to 1.5 °C, especially for hard-to-decarbonize sectors. Scientists stress CDR must complement aggressive emissions cuts and net-zero by 2050. The panel warns that reliance on CDR alone cannot meet targets without deep emissions cuts.

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The report notes pledged removal of 2.7 billion tons by 2035 and 3.6 billion tons by 2050, yet current removal stands at 2.2 billion tons, leaving a growing shortfall. Novel CDR technologies are expanding at ~40 % annually but start from a negligible base. Microsoft, which previously bought over 80 % of novel carbon credits, stopped new purchases in April. The report warns that without accelerated deployment, the shortfall will expand as emissions continue.

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William Lamb said the pledges fall far short of pathways needed, creating a widening gap. Lamb noted the widening gap will increase over time. Thomas Gasser called CDR the only long-term option to reverse climate change if emissions reach near-zero. The IPCC’s “unavoidable” label underscores its essential role.

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Scientists warn that overstating CDR could delay systemic energy reforms and view geoengineering proposals as risky. Some experts argue that emphasizing CDR may shift public attention away from necessary energy system reforms. The report flags the sector’s fragile financing, especially amid policy shifts such as the Trump administration’s rollback of climate rules.

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• “Countries have pledged around 2.7 billion [metric tons] of carbon removal by 2035 and about 3.6 billion by 2050, but climate pathways require much more, especially in the long term,” — William Lamb, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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• “This leaves a gap that grows significantly over time.” — William Lamb, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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• “While we are indeed far behind in terms of CDR development, it remains the only option to revert climate change in the long run — although only if greenhouse gas emissions are also reduced to near-zero,” — Thomas Gasser, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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• “unavoidable,” — International Panel on Climate Change

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The authors say scaling CDR to the pace of solar-panel and EV adoption is required. The report concludes that achieving climate targets will require CDR expansion at a comparable pace. Sustained corporate investment, stable policies, and faster technology rollout are needed to close the removal gap.

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