Full Breakdown
Dodgers Bullpen Ground-Ball Profile: From 2023 Dominance to 2026 Drift
6/8/2026, 10:48:54 PM
2023 Benchmark: Ground-Ball Supremacy
In 2023 the Dodgers bullpen posted an IP-weighted ground-ball rate of .480, 50 points above the league average of .430. Its walk rate was 2.57 BB/9, 0.73 walks fewer per nine innings than the MLB mean of 3.30. Combined, these metrics produced a home-run-per-fly-ball (HR/FB) rate of .072, 37 % below the league average of .115, sharply limiting long-ball damage in high-leverage innings.
Core Relievers and Their Profiles
Four relievers anchored the 2023 profile: Brusdar Graterol (GB% .644, BB/9 2.41, ERA 1.20, FIP 3.03), Victor González (GB% .543, BB/9 3.16), Ryan Brasier (GB% .511, BB/9 0.83, ERA 0.70, FIP 2.48), Caleb Ferguson (GB% .491, BB/9 2.84) and Evan Phillips (GB% .480, BB/9 2.49, ERA 2.05, FIP 3.16). Their ground-ball dominance, paired with low walk rates, drove the bullpen’s overall efficiency.
Metric Trajectory, 2023-2026
| Season | GB% vs MLB Avg | BB/9 vs MLB Avg | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +.050 | –.73 | .072 (–0.73) |
| 2024 | –.018 | +.10 | n/a |
| 2025 | –.059 | +.89 | .123 (+0.89) |
| 2026* | –.035 | +.28 | n/a |
*2026 reflects a partial season. Ground-ball rate rose to .395, walk rate fell to 3.58 BB/9. New relievers include Tanner Scott (GB% .392, BB/9 2.84) and Alex Vesia (GB% .286, BB/9 3.32), neither matching the 2023 ground-ball profile. The downward shift in both ground-ball and walk metrics translates to a higher expected run allowance per inning, especially in late-game situations where contact quality is critical.
Consequences for Run Prevention and Postseason Success
The HR/FB increase to .123 in 2025 placed the bullpen above league average in home-run susceptibility. Over 66 games the Dodgers outscored opponents by 133 runs, yielding a Pythagorean expectation of a 48-18 record; the actual record was 42-24, a six-win shortfall. Despite the decline, the team captured the 2024 and 2025 World Series, indicating that postseason strand rates compensated for regular-season bullpen erosion.
Assessment of the Bullpen’s Decline
Analysts note that the bullpen’s shift from a ground-ball to a fly-ball orientation compresses the value of large run differentials and raises risk in tie games, with the 2026 version surrendering runs at a higher rate than the 2023 version, narrowing the margin for error in October. No single factor fully explains the gap; the profile drift is a contributing element.
Verbatim Quotes
"The 2026 version gives them away at a rate the 2023 version did not," — The Brohtanis analysis
Tracking the Evolution: The BRO Bullpen Index
The BRO Bullpen Index (BBI), developed by Xavier Alatorre at The Brohtanis, will assign each current Dodgers reliever a score against the 2023 benchmark in August, providing a systematic gauge of the bullpen’s recovery or further drift.
Outlook for the Remainder of 2026
Partial-season data show modest improvement—ground-ball rate up to .395 and walk rate down to 3.58 BB/9—yet both remain below the 2023 standard. Continued monitoring via the BBI and the team’s high-leverage performance will determine whether the bullpen can regain its former suppressive effect on home runs before the postseason.
