Story perspectives

Gold Slides as Jobs Surge, Fed Hike Odds Rise

6/9/2026

Summary

Gold Falls

Spot gold fell 1% to $4,287.66 per ounce.
U.S. jobs data added 172,000 jobs in May, kept unemployment at 4.3%, and raised December Fed hike odds to 72%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.55%, its highest in two weeks.
Analysts say gold could recover if the December-hike probability drops below 50%, which would likely lower yields.

Summary

Consumers Pessimism Peaks

Consumers' pessimism peaked, with 13.3% saying their situation is “much worse” than a year ago—the highest since July 2022.
Job-loss probability rose to 15.1% while confidence in finding a job within three months fell to 43.7%.
One-year inflation expectations held at 3.5%, with food at 5.8%, rent at 7.4% and gasoline at 5%.
Average hourly earnings rose 3.4% YoY, but near-4% inflation means real wages effectively declined, according to Kristina Sargent.

History

Historical Context

In 1980, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s policy in 1979-81 raised rates to about 20%, sending 10-year Treasury yields to a record 15.84% and gold to $850 per ounce as inflation hit 13.5%. Today, gold trades above $4,200 and 10-year yields sit near 4.5%, reviving memories of that broad wage-and-job squeeze.

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Gold Falls

Spot gold fell 1% to $4,287.66 per ounce.
U.S. jobs data added 172,000 jobs in May, kept unemployment at 4.3%, and raised December Fed hike odds to 72%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.55%, its highest in two weeks.
Analysts say gold could recover if the December-hike probability drops below 50%, which would likely lower yields.

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