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AT&T iPhone Rollout Halves Fertility, Cuts Teen Births

6/9/2026

Summary

Myers Links iPhone

Caitlin Myers and Ezekiel Hooper found iPhone availability via AT&T from 2007 to Feb 2011 contributed half of fertility decline, dropping 6.2 births per 1,000 women (33%-52% decline).
The study reported birth reductions of 4.5-8.0% for ages 15-19 and 3.2-6.6% for ages 20-24 in counties with AT&T coverage.
Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso Boedo observed similar teenage fertility accelerations after smartphone penetration rose in 128 countries, suggesting a technology shock.

Summary

Researchers Test Smartphones

The two papers present the first academic attempts to formally test smartphones as a causal factor in the two-decade fertility decline.
Researchers note that proving smartphones cause fertility decline is difficult because true random assignment cannot be performed.
To approximate experimental conditions, the studies used data sources that introduced randomness into smartphone exposure.
The authors acknowledge that the Great Recession and other concurrent events further complicate isolating the smartphone’s impact.

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Myers Links iPhone

Caitlin Myers and Ezekiel Hooper found iPhone availability via AT&T from 2007 to Feb 2011 contributed half of fertility decline, dropping 6.2 births per 1,000 women (33%-52% decline).
The study reported birth reductions of 4.5-8.0% for ages 15-19 and 3.2-6.6% for ages 20-24 in counties with AT&T coverage.
Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso Boedo observed similar teenage fertility accelerations after smartphone penetration rose in 128 countries, suggesting a technology shock.

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