Story perspectives

ECB Lifts Deposit Rate to 2.25% Amid 3.2% Inflation

6/10/2026

Summary

ECB Raises Deposit Rate

The European Central Bank will raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on Thursday.
April euro-zone inflation was 3.2% headline and 2.5% core, with energy prices up 10.9% year-on-year.
ABN AMRO analyst Jan-Paul van de Kerke expects a further hike to 2.50% in June or July.
Commerzbank’s Marco Wagner sees a possible September 25-basis-point rise but doubts a third hike this year.

Summary

Fed Rate Holds

A Reuters poll of 102 economists found 72% expect the Fed’s rate to stay at 3.50%-3.75% 2026, up from half a month earlier.
The New York Fed’s May survey showed inflation expectations unchanged at 3.5%, home-price growth expectations rising to 3.5%—highest since July 2022—and confidence falling to its lowest level since October 2022.
Interest-rate futures price in at least one Fed hike by end-2026, reflecting doubts the inflation shock will fade quickly.

History

Historical Context

In February 1994 the Federal Reserve sharply raised short-term rates, sending 30-year Treasury yields up more than 150 basis points and triggering bond-market turmoil that quickly spread to Europe, where implied yield volatility rose 10-20 % across France, Germany and the United Kingdom. The ECB’s planned 25-basis-point lift to 2.25 % therefore revives the 1994 tightening pattern, reminding policymakers of its growth-dragging legacy.

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ECB Raises Deposit Rate

The European Central Bank will raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on Thursday.
April euro-zone inflation was 3.2% headline and 2.5% core, with energy prices up 10.9% year-on-year.
ABN AMRO analyst Jan-Paul van de Kerke expects a further hike to 2.50% in June or July.
Commerzbank’s Marco Wagner sees a possible September 25-basis-point rise but doubts a third hike this year.

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