Full Breakdown
Brexit a Decade On: Shifting Public Opinion and the Prospect of Re-entry
6/9/2026, 9:06:57 PM
Core Findings on Public Sentiment
A new YouGov tracker shows 57 % of Britons now believe the 2016 vote to leave the EU was wrong, while 55 % say the UK should rejoin. An Ipsos survey of 1,137 adults (14-20 May 2026) finds 52 % support re-joining and 33 % would vote to stay out in a hypothetical redo. Among likely voters, 58 % would back re-entry and 37 % would oppose it. Almost half of respondents (49 %) favour holding a fresh referendum after the next general election, and 40 % think the UK and EU have conflicting interests on illegal immigration.
Historical Context and Policy Outcomes
The 2016 referendum produced a narrow Leave majority (51.9 % to 48.1 %). The UK formally exited the EU on 31 January 2020, losing customs-union status and many opt-outs. Subsequent analyses estimate a “Brexit tax” of 0.5-1 % of GDP, roughly £15-30 bn annually, and a 12-18 % reduction in business investment relative to a no-Brexit scenario.
Poll Data on Re-joining and Referendum Appetite
- YouGov (2025): 57 % think Brexit was a mistake; 55 % support re-joining, dropping to 35 % if prior opt-outs are lost.
- Ipsos (May 2026): 52 % favour applying to re-join; 58 % of likely voters would vote “yes” in a new referendum; 49 % support a post-election referendum.
- Britain Unbound/YouGov (2025): 60 % would reject ceding UK legislative control for greater single-market access; support is lowest among those with GCSE-level education (71 % oppose).
Political Leaders’ Positions
- David Miliband (former foreign secretary): Argues the UK suffers a “punishing Brexit tax” and calls for renewed cooperation, warning that the country is “£16,000 per year per person poorer” than it would have been without Brexit.
- Keir Starmer (Labour leader): Stated that Brexit must not block opportunities for young people and pledged to push for closer ties with Europe.
- Andy Burnham (Mayor of Greater Manchester): Expressed a long-term case for re-joining the EU, though he moderated the stance during a by-election in a Leave-majority constituency.
- Reform UK (Nigel Farage’s party): Seven in ten supporters would vote against re-joining.
- Conservative voters: 56 % would stay out, reflecting party-wide ambivalence.
Opposition to Legislative Trade-offs
A Britain Unbound-commissioned YouGov poll shows a robust reluctance to exchange UK legislative autonomy for single-market benefits. Opposition spans gender, region and education groups, with 64 % of respondents in the Midlands and 71 % of GCSE-educated adults rejecting the trade-off. Critics argue that such arrangements would undermine a core Brexit objective: sovereign law-making.
Divergent Poll Results and Uncertainties
YouGov and Ipsos differ on the magnitude of re-join support (55 % vs 52 % overall; 58 % vs 58 % among likely voters). Cost estimates also vary: Miliband cites £15-30 bn per year, while academic research places the fiscal impact at 0.5-1 % of GDP. No poll directly measures how a future referendum’s wording would affect outcomes, leaving a gap in predictive certainty.
Verbatim Quotes
- “a clear shift in the public mood.” — Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics, Ipsos
- “the debate over our relationship with Europe is far from settled in the minds of the electorate.” — Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics, Ipsos
- “Britain remains a European country. We need to behave like one, cooperate like we understand its implications, and realise that the rest of the world does not owe us anything. If we don’t get our act together, more fool us. We need to renew our cooperation, which has been sabotaged by Brexit.” — David Miliband, Former Foreign Secretary
- “ Mr Miliband, who stood in the 2010 Labour leadership contest and narrowly lost to his brother Ed, a member of Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet, stated: “We are suffering a punishing Brexit tax every day.” — David Miliband, Former Foreign Secretary
- “Writing in Sir Anthony Seldon’s book, The Brexit Effect, which is being serialised in The Independent, Prof Curtice says: “The 2016 referendum has failed to resolve the debate about whether Britain should be inside or outside the EU.” — Sir John Curtice, Professor, University of Oxford
- “Brexit has largely failed to live up to Leave voters’ expectations.” — Sir John Curtice, Professor, University of Oxford
Outlook and Upcoming Developments
Ipsos will present detailed findings at an event on 15 June 2026, and political parties are expected to position themselves ahead of the next general election. The persistent public appetite for a new referendum, combined with divergent party stances, suggests that the UK’s EU relationship will remain a contested policy arena for the foreseeable future.
