New Zealand Public Views the United States as a Greater Threat Than China, Survey Shows

The Asia New Zealand Foundation’s 29th annual *Perceptions of Asia and Asian Peoples* survey, fielded with 2,300 respondents in January-February 2026, found that 35 % of New Zealanders now view the United States as a threat, surpassing the 23 % who see China as a threat. Conversely, 39 % regard the United States as a friend, compared with 43 % for China – the first time in a decade that the U.S. is perceived as the larger security concern.

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Earlier surveys recorded a 61 % friend rating for the United States, which has fallen sharply. At the same time, China’s friend rating has risen modestly while its threat perception has declined, despite Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. The shift coincides with heightened U.S. actions under President Donald Trump’s second term, including a “spray of tariffs” on New Zealand exports and the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, both of which have strained economic ties.

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Asia New Zealand Foundation chief executive Suzannah Jessep stressed that “prosperity, resilience and security will depend on the depth and quality of our relationships across Asia.” Victoria University of Wellington professor David Capie noted that New Zealanders assess security through an economic lens, saying tariffs and trade disruption “weigh heavily on those calculations.” Massey University emeritus professor Paul Spoonley observed a broader positive trend toward Asia, while warning that election-year concerns may heighten immigration anxieties.

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• United States: 39 % friend, 35 % threat.

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• China: 43 % friend, 23 % threat.

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• 81 % say developing ties with Asia is important.

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• High trust: 20 % in the United States (down 13 pts), 19 % in China (up 5 pts).

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• Low/very low trust: 54 % in the United States, 39 % in China.

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• Japan: 81 % friend, 1 % threat; Singapore: 77 % friend, 1 % threat.

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The perception shift may pressure Wellington to recalibrate its security partnership with Washington while deepening economic diversification toward Asian markets. Exporters have already felt the sting of U.S. tariffs, and higher oil prices linked to the U.S.–Israeli conflict have added inflationary pressure. Simultaneously, New Zealand’s joint Five Eyes statement on Chinese cyber-espionage signals a willingness to confront Beijing on security issues without jeopardising trade.

The Straits Times

Jessep’s report frames the findings as evidence that “prosperity, resilience and security will depend on the depth and quality of our relationships across Asia.” Capie reiterated that “tariffs and disruption to global trade weigh heavily on those calculations.” The survey also notes that New Zealand and the United States have deepened defence, security and technology cooperation, positioning Washington as a counterweight to China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.

The Straits Times

Critics point to a series of Trump-era actions that have eroded goodwill: a “spray of tariffs,” an “attack on Venezuela,” threats to seize Greenland, and rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state. Capie described the administration as “a really different kind of administration when it comes to New Zealand’s interests.” Similar sentiment has emerged in Australia, Japan and India, where majorities view the Trump second term as detrimental.

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All sources agree on the core percentages, but reliability scores differ (Reuters assigns 43.77; other outlets give none). The survey was completed before the United States launched strikes on Iran at the end of February, leaving a gap in post-strike public-opinion data. An Ipsos global survey cited in the Spinoff article shows a comparable decline in confidence in the United States but offers less detail on New Zealand-specific attitudes.

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• “There is a growing recognition that prosperity, resilience and security will depend on the depth and quality of our relationships across Asia,” — Suzannah Jessep, Chief Executive, Asia New Zealand Foundation

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• “New Zealanders also still understand their sense of security largely through an economic lens, and so tariffs and disruption to global trade weigh heavily on those calculations,” — David Capie, Professor of International Relations, Victoria University of Wellington

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• “Those warmth perceptions have really fallen off a cliff,” — David Capie, Professor of International Relations, Victoria University of Wellington

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• “a really different kind of administration when it comes to New Zealand’s interests” — David Capie, Professor of International Relations, Victoria University of Wellington

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• “When you look back to when the survey began, it is trending in a positive direction,” — Paul Spoonley, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Massey University

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The foundation will release its next annual survey in early 2027, capturing any post-Iran-strike shifts and the impact of the upcoming New Zealand elections. Policymakers are expected to weigh the public’s security-economic calculus when shaping future Indo-Pacific alliances and trade strategies.

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