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Tax Shift Accelerates Social Security, Medicare Insolvency to 2032-33

6/10/2026

24 5 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Trustees said the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill tax changes accelerated depletion, moving insolvency up a year.
They projected Old-Age and Survivors Insurance fund will run out in Q4 2032 at 78% of benefits and Medicare’s Hospital Insurance fund will fall short Q2 2033 at 89% of payments.
AARP chief Myechia Minter-Jordan and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president Maya MacGuineas called it a wake-up call and urged Congress to act.

History

Historical Context

In 1983, after the National Commission on Social Security Reform—led by Alan Greenspan—recommended a six-month COLA delay and higher payroll taxes, President Ronald Reagan signed amendments that created a trust fund. The fund posted a $200 billion surplus in 1990 and a 6.2% tax rate, yet trends now forecast the OASI trust to deplete by Q4 2032, echoing AARP and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warnings.

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Story summary

Trustees said the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill tax changes accelerated depletion, moving insolvency up a year.
They projected Old-Age and Survivors Insurance fund will run out in Q4 2032 at 78% of benefits and Medicare’s Hospital Insurance fund will fall short Q2 2033 at 89% of payments.
AARP chief Myechia Minter-Jordan and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president Maya MacGuineas called it a wake-up call and urged Congress to act.

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