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May CPI 4.2% Forecast, Oil-Lifted Gas Surge.

6/10/2026

38 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI on June 10, 2024, 8:30 a.m. ET.
Headline CPI is forecast at 4.2% year-over-year.
Core CPI is expected at 2.9% year-over-year.
Iran-war oil spikes lifted gasoline 28.4% year-over-year and drove 40% of April’s CPI rise.
Markets price a 98% chance of a 25-bp Federal Reserve (Fed) hike on June 16-17, noting that May jobs gain of 172,000 lifts December-hike odds to 70%.

History

Historical Context

In April 1979 President Jimmy Carter began phasing out domestic oil price controls as the Iranian Revolution sent crude prices more than doubling within a year, pushing U.S. gasoline sharply higher. The surge prompted Paul Volcker’s Federal Reserve to tighten policy as crude oil peaked over $35 per barrel in 1980, a lesson echoed in the June 2024 rate outlook.

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Story summary

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI on June 10, 2024, 8:30 a.m. ET.
Headline CPI is forecast at 4.2% year-over-year.
Core CPI is expected at 2.9% year-over-year.
Iran-war oil spikes lifted gasoline 28.4% year-over-year and drove 40% of April’s CPI rise.
Markets price a 98% chance of a 25-bp Federal Reserve (Fed) hike on June 16-17, noting that May jobs gain of 172,000 lifts December-hike odds to 70%.

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