Climate-Driven Subsidence Threat Looms Over Millions of Homes in London, Essex and Kent

A British Geological Survey (BGS) analysis warns that hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are causing shrink-swell subsidence, where drying soils pull foundations downward. The report flags London, Essex and Kent as the most exposed zones, where structural damage could become widespread.

Birmingham Mail

2025 saw the UK’s warmest spring on record and the driest in over 50 years. Scientists attribute these extremes to accelerating global heating and project that hotter, drier conditions will become increasingly common.

The Guardian

Under a low-emissions pathway the BGS forecasts about 500,000 homes at risk by 2070; a medium-emissions trajectory raises the figure to roughly 1.8 million nationwide, with the Independent estimating over 2.5 million London homes alone. A high-emissions scenario could affect more than 4 million properties. Insurers recorded £153 million in subsidence claims in the first half of 2025, supporting nearly 9,000 households with an average payout of £17,264.

The Independent

BGS quaternary scientist Anna Harrison said that integrating geotechnical data with climate projections enabled the identification of high-risk zones. Insurers note rising claim volumes as more homes exhibit subsidence symptoms.

The Independent

The Independent reports 2.5 million London homes at high risk under a medium scenario, while the Guardian’s estimate for the same scenario is 1.8 million properties across the UK. No governmental mitigation plan is detailed in the sources.

The Independent

Subsidence can lower property values and trigger mortgage refusals until repairs are completed. Remediation typically involves underpinning foundations, replacing utility pipes and stabilising transport networks, all of which entail substantial engineering costs.

The Guardian

• “By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence.” — Anna Harrison, Applied Quaternary Scientist, BGS

The IndependentBirmingham MailThe Guardian

• “Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue.” — Anna Harrison, BGS

The GuardianThe IndependentBirmingham Mail

• “These properties might have foundations that currently can withstand the changes in moisture, but you might find in future there’s going to be more movement. It’s probably going to get worse.” — Anna Harrison, BGS

Birmingham Mail

• “Hotter, drier summers are expected to continue.” — Anna Harrison, BGS

The Guardian

BGS projections suggest risk will rise sharply by 2070, prompting calls for mitigation measures such as engineering work to stabilise foundations. Continuous monitoring and adaptive strategies will be needed to protect the millions of homes at risk.

The Guardian