Story perspectives
El Niño Likely Strong, NOAA Confirms; Atlantic Storms Dip to 8-14
6/12/2026
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Story summary
- Scientists say the developing El Niño has a 63 % chance of becoming a strong event.
- NOAA confirmed El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific on June 11, 2026, marking it active.
- The World Meteorological Organization forecasts an 80 % chance of El Niño onset this summer and a near-90 % chance it will persist into November.
- NOAA projects 8-14 Atlantic storms, fewer than average because El Niño wind shear suppresses development.
