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Trump Pushes Iran Deal 38 Times, Markets Fluctuate

6/12/2026

30 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

President Donald Trump has touted an imminent Iran peace deal 38 times since March despite Iran’s denial, prompting swings in oil and equity markets.
Polls show 59% of Americans think the U.S. made the wrong decision in attacking Iran.
Political scientist David Smith says Trump’s assurances now have little market effect.
U.S. forces bombed Iranian sites, prompting the Revolutionary Guard to attack U.S. targets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

History

Historical Context

In July 2015 Iran and the P5+1 (the U.S., China, France, Russia, the U.K., and Germany) plus the EU signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in Vienna, lifting about $150 billion in nuclear-related sanctions and limiting enrichment to 3.67% uranium. The U.S. withdrew in 2018, and President Trump now invokes the 2015 framework while Tehran denies a new deal, reviving market volatility.

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Story summary

President Donald Trump has touted an imminent Iran peace deal 38 times since March despite Iran’s denial, prompting swings in oil and equity markets.
Polls show 59% of Americans think the U.S. made the wrong decision in attacking Iran.
Political scientist David Smith says Trump’s assurances now have little market effect.
U.S. forces bombed Iranian sites, prompting the Revolutionary Guard to attack U.S. targets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

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