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Story summary
- Analysts say Democrats need to win every competitive Senate race to achieve a narrow path majority.
- Crystal Ball’s June 11 rating lists Alaska and Ohio as toss-ups, North Carolina as leaning Democratic, giving Republicans a 53-47 seat edge.
- Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi price Republican Senate control at about 56 percent.
- Democrats must win four of the 35 races, including the toss-up contests—Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Michigan—to reach a 50-50 Senate.
