Youth Confidence Crisis: Record Uncertainty Over Long-Term Employment in England

The IPPR finds only one in four 16- to 29-year-olds now believes hard work leads to success, versus 35 % of those aged 50-69 and over 40 % of over-70s. The share expecting an 80 % or greater chance of long-term unemployment has risen to 7 %. NEETs have exceeded one million for the first time in a decade, and the institute warns the figure could reach 1.25 million by 2030 without action.

The Guardian

The IPPR cites overlapping pressures: visible austerity effects since the mid-2010s, personalised online algorithms reshaping information, deteriorating mental health (poor mental health reported by 40 % of women and 30 % of men aged 16-24), rising youth unemployment and soaring housing costs, all undermining confidence in the social contract.

The Guardian

The government acknowledges the “locked out of opportunity” issue and has pledged a £2.5 billion youth employment support package to assist almost one million young people in earning or learning. It will also expand youth hubs nationwide to provide skills, job and housing support. Former Labour minister Alan Milburn is conducting a NEET review, with findings due later in 2026, warning of a potential “lost generation” if trends continue.

The Guardian

The IPPR argues current policies fail to tackle the structural drivers of youth pessimism. Ellie Harris, head of children and young people, says the “deal no longer adds up” and that the promise of hard work “no longer feels credible,” urging action on austerity legacies, housing affordability and the algorithm-driven information environment.

The Guardian

• “Young people are telling us clearly that the deal no longer adds up,” — Ellie Harris, IPPR head of children and young people

The Guardian

• “For too many, the promise that hard work will lead to security and opportunity no longer feels credible.” — Ellie Harris, IPPR head of children and young people

The Guardian

• “During the mid-2010s, several pressures were intensifying at once: the effects of austerity were becoming more visible, the online information environment was being reshaped by personalised algorithms, and young people’s mental health was beginning to deteriorate,” — IPPR report

The Guardian

• “5bn youth employment support package to help almost 1 million young people either earn or learn.” — Government spokesperson

The Guardian

Keir Starmer is set to announce new under-16 social-media restrictions, citing mental-health concerns. Milburn’s full NEET review will be released later in 2026.

The Guardian