Independent Voters’ Support for President Trump Erodes Over Second Term

Aggregating 21 AP-NORC surveys and a May 2026 PRRI poll reveals a steep decline in independent voters’ backing of President Donald Trump. Independent support fell 17 percentage points from the pre-presidency period (July 2024–Jan 2025) to the “Iran War” period (Jan–Apr 2026). PRRI shows favorability among independents dropped from 37 % in September 2024 to 25 % in May 2026.

AP-NORC

• July 2024 – Jan 2025: Election and pre-presidency polling.

Associated Press

• Mar – May 2025: First 100 days.

Public Religion Research Institute

• Jun – Aug 2025: One Big Beautiful Bill enacted.

Public Religion Research Institute

• Sept – Dec 2025: Government shutdown.

AP-NORC

• Jan – Apr 2026: ICE crackdowns and Iran war.

AP-NORC

Support among non-college independents fell from 48 % pre-presidency to 27 % during the Iran-war period; college-educated independents slipped from 29 % to 24 %. Black independents dropped from 38 % to 17 % and Hispanic independents from 46 % to 15 %. Overall independent favorability fell from 37 % to 25 % (PRRI). Only about 12 % approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living in April 2026.

AP-NORC

The independent bloc often decides midterm outcomes; shrinking Trump-friendly independents could jeopardize Republican control of Congress in the 2026 elections.

Associated Press

Tafari Torres, senior research associate at NORC, said independents are broadly reacting to events and dropping their support. Sean Collins noted the decline among non-college independents was steeper than the modest drop among college independents. Torres added that the election-year gains for Trump do not appear permanent. An AP-NORC analysis warned that any erosion in that support could signal trouble for Trump and Republicans in the upcoming midterms.

Associated Press

Political analysts note that rising inflation and persistent gas prices have turned many former Trump-supporting independents away, suggesting the president’s economic narrative no longer resonates with this swing group.

Associated Press

AP-NORC tracks “support” (voting intent) while PRRI measures “favorability” (general sentiment), producing slightly different baselines. Neither source provides a White House comment on the trend, leaving the administration’s official response undocumented. The causal link between specific policies and the independent decline remains untested.

Associated Press

• “Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” — Tafari Torres, Senior Research Associate, NORC

Associated Press

• “The decline among no-college independents was steeper and it was greater than the slight decline in college independents,” — Sean Collins, Research Associate, NORC

Associated Press

• “The gains Trump appeared to make during the election, I don’t know if they’re sticking around.” — Tafari Torres, NORC

Associated Press

• “Any erosion in that support could signal trouble for Trump and Republicans headed into the midterm elections, which are often seen as reflection of how voters feel about their governing party.” — AP analysis, cited by AP-NORC report

Associated Press

• “Significant declines were also evident among “true independents” (those who don’t lean toward either party), who experienced a 21-percentage point decrease, from 35% to 14%.” — PRRI Spotlight Analysis

Public Religion Research Institute

The 2026 midterm elections in November will test Republican prospects after the independent decline, while summer polling will monitor whether the trend stabilizes or deepens.

Associated Press