Push to Scrap Triple Lock as Burnham Eyes Leadership Contest

Introduced in 2010, the triple lock guarantees pension rises at the higher of inflation, wage growth or 2.5 %. The OBR now estimates its annual cost at about £146 billion—roughly 5 % of GDP—far above the original projection.

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Key actors include Andy Burnham; Labour MPs; Sir Richard Barrons; former adviser John McTernan; Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns (both resigned); the Resolution Foundation; and Women Against State Pension Inequality (Waspi).

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The triple lock costs about £146 bn a year (5 % of GDP). The Defence Investment Plan requires £18 bn; the Treasury has pledged £13.5 bn, about £10 bn cash or a 0.08 % GDP rise—roughly eight times the defence shortfall.

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Richard Barrons told Newsnight that releasing the triple lock would “put more money back into things like defence”. John McTernan said dropping the lock’s “ratchet” would create “huge headroom”. Burnham, at Makerfield hustings, reaffirmed Waspi support and pledged compensation for women. Treasury notes cash for defence; Labour manifesto pledges to keep triple lock for full term.

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Labour MPs call the triple lock unaffordable and urge Burnham to “rip DIP up and start again”. One MP dismissed pensioner voting concerns, saying they no longer support Labour. Others note that, despite manifesto pledge, lack of a written constitution allows government to change lock if will arises.

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The Resolution Foundation links rising pensioner poverty to the triple lock’s start, while some politicians warn scrapping it could alienate a key voter bloc. No consensus exists on exact fiscal savings from reform, and the manifesto’s legal bindingness remains ambiguous. Estimates of funds that could be redirected to defence are also debated.

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• “release the triple lock in order to put more money back into things like defence.” — General Sir Richard Barrons

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• “There’s no point me having a glamorous, comfortable retirement if the country that I bequeath to my children is at great military risk,” — General Sir Richard Barrons

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• “If I were Burnham, I would axe the triple lock – and I’ve told him as much.” — John McTernan, former Blair adviser

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• “He is reported to have told a Makerfield hustings that he has “long supported” the Women Against State Pension Inequality (Waspi) and would “stick by” them as “they deserve some recompense for the unfairness”.” — Andy Burnham (Makerfield hustings)

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The Makerfield by-election next week will test Burnham’s appeal; a win could trigger a leadership challenge to Sir Keir Starmer. If successful, Burnham may propose a plan to modify or drop the triple lock, reshaping Labour’s welfare stance and freeing funds for defence and youth jobs.

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