Democrats Target Redistricting for 2028 After Supreme Court Ruling

In June 2024 the Supreme Court’s *Louisiana v. Callais* decision weakened the Voting Rights Act, allowing GOP-controlled legislatures to adopt new congressional maps that cut Black representation. Democrats are now coordinating redistricting efforts in multiple states ahead of the 2028 elections.

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By removing the federal preclearance requirement, the ruling lets states redraw districts without VRA review. Republicans have drawn 16 new GOP-favored House seats versus six for Democrats, giving the GOP a ten-seat edge for 2026.

This Is What an All-Out Redistricting War Looks Like

Current delegations: NY 19-7, MD 7-1, OR 5-1, IL 14-3, VA 6-5, NJ 9-3, WA 8-2. Downballot projects 21 additional Democratic seats by 2028 in nine states, including +4 in NY and VA.

This Is What an All-Out Redistricting War Looks Like

• New York: constitutional amendment approved; Gov. Hochul backs it.

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• Maryland: Senate President Bill Ferguson now supports a special session and amendment.

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• Oregon: Gov. Kotek says redistricting is not under consideration.

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• Illinois: Legislature draws maps; Black legislators warn proposals could cut minority districts; Gov. Pritzker shows limited enthusiasm.

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• Virginia: Supreme Court struck 2023 Democratic map; Gov. Spanberger calls 2028 plans “outrageously premature.”

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• New Jersey: Two-thirds vote needed to suspend commission; Senate President Scutari supports the move.

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• Washington: Two-thirds supermajority required to alter commission; AG Ferguson says he would lead a redistricting effort if achieved.

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Gov. Hochul pledged to work with lawmakers to counter perceived federal rigging. Bill Ferguson announced Maryland’s need to respond to the new legal landscape. Nick Scutari voiced support for suspending New Jersey’s commission. Gov. Spanberger warned that 2028 redistricting is premature. AG Ferguson said he would lead a redistricting push if a two-thirds supermajority is secured.

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Analysts caution that aggressive maps risk a “dummymander,” diluting Democratic votes and losing seats. Black legislators in Illinois oppose proposals they say would erode minority districts, highlighting intra-party tension.

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Democracy Docket lists seven states pursuing 2028 redistricting; Downballot adds Colorado, Wisconsin and Minnesota, expanding the list to nine. Timelines for the latter three remain unclear.

This Is What an All-Out Redistricting War Looks Like

• “so we can fight back against Washington’s attempts to rig our democracy.” — Kathy Hochul, Governor of New York

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• “Maryland must respond as the ground shifts under us.” — Bill Ferguson, Maryland Senate President

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• “We are in an era of maximum warfare,” — Hakeem Jeffries, House Democratic Leader

This Is What an All-Out Redistricting War Looks Like

• “Democrats can target many Republican seats while respecting the VRA,” — David Nir, Downballot analyst

This Is What an All-Out Redistricting War Looks Like

New York’s amendment must clear a 2026 legislative vote and a 2028 voter referendum. Maryland’s special session follows the June 23 primary. New Jersey aims for a 2028 ballot measure. Washington will assess whether a two-thirds supermajority can be secured before the next session. These steps will shape the House map for 2028.

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