Oil Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Rebound Amid U.S.-Iran Conflict

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February closed the Strait of Hormuz, stranding 20 million barrels per day of non-Iranian crude. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said 7 million bpd now flow, about half the pre-war gap, and pledged full reopening “with or without Iran’s assistance.” The move coincides with cease-fire talks at the G7 summit (15-17 June).

Middle East Eye

Kpler logged 136 million barrels (?1.9 million bpd) from early April to 10 June; Vortexa recorded 1.8 million bpd in early June, up from 1.2 million bpd in May. Energy Intelligence sees 2.7 million bpd for June. Ship-to-ship transfers add about 1.9-2.9 million bpd, still far below the 15-20 million bpd pre-war flow.

The Guardian

Wright said the U.S. will keep the Strategic Petroleum Reserve full and will not impose an export ban. Doug Burgum reported up to 20 nightly escorted vessels, sometimes more. President Donald Trump claimed the effort moved over 200 ships and more than 100 million barrels. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned flows are “probably not quite that much.” A senior Iranian official suggested a G7-linked deal could be imminent.

Bloomberg

Analysts dispute the rebound size. Wright’s 7 million-bpd claim exceeds Kpler’s 1.9 million-bpd average and Vortexa’s 1.8 million-bpd estimate. The International Energy Agency estimates a global shortfall near 14 million bpd, but some traders say it may be 5-6 million bpd after accounting for logistics from Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE. “Dark” transits are hard to verify, reducing confidence in official figures.

The Guardian

Lloyd’s List reported U.S. “overwatch” missions—drones and aircraft—guiding “shadow” tankers with AIS off. From 1-7 June, 36 transits were logged, 17 “dark.” Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman let empty tankers reload and re-enter the strait, a practice now called the “new norm.”

The Guardian

Flow volume (7 million bpd vs. 1.8-2.9 million bpd) and total barrels (Trump’s 100 million claim vs. Kpler’s 136 million-barrel tally) differ. A precise escort schedule was not given, and Iran’s position remains unclear. Satellite counts of dark transits lag by up to a week, limiting real-time verification.

The Guardian

• “The restoration of 7 million barrels a day is a bigger number than I think people had been expecting.” — Dan Pickering, CIO, Pickering Energy Partners

Bloomberg

• “Our view would be it’s probably not quite that much.” — Mike Wirth, CEO, Chevron Corp.

Bloomberg

• “Tankers are exiting the Gulf, they’re then conducting ship-to-ship transfers to other tankers in the Gulf of Oman.” — Richard Meade, Editor-in-Chief, Lloyd’s List

The Guardian

• “Some nights, more than 20 ships [are] coming out.” — Doug Burgum, U.S. Interior Secretary

Middle East Eye

Senior Iranian officials say a cease-fire deal could be reached at the G7 summit, formalizing a reopening protocol. U.S. night escorts and shadow transits will continue, while analysts monitor inventories that have neared “danger-zone” levels, warning of price volatility if flows falter.

Bloomberg