Full Breakdown
Kamala Harris Leads Democratic 2028 Primary Poll, Yet Support Shows Signs of Erosion
6/15/2026, 12:50:08 AM
Poll Shows Harris Ahead Among Democratic Voters
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted nationally by Noble Predictive Insights from June 4 to June 6, surveyed 1,224 registered voters who identify as Democrats (1,013) or left-leaning independents (211). The former vice president, Kamala Harris, received 27% support, nearly double the 14% garnered by California Governor Gavin Newsom, who placed second.
Recent Shifts in Candidate Support
Harris’s backing has declined from 33% in October and 31% in March to the current 27%. Newsom’s share fell from 21% last fall to 14% in this survey. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg rose to 11%, marking his first double-digit showing, while New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recovered to 8%. Seventeen percent of respondents remain undecided about their 2028 primary choice.
Demographic Breakdown
Among Black voters, 49% indicated support for Harris, and 48% of respondents aged 18-29 favored her. Harris led voters without a college degree with 35% support. Conversely, Newsom led older voters, securing 23% among those 65 and older compared with Harris’s 11%. Among respondents with postgraduate degrees, Newsom edged Harris 19% to 18%.
Data & Statistics
The poll recorded 27% support for Harris, 14% for Newsom, 11% for Buttigieg, and 8% for Ocasio-Cortez. Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro together accounted for 9% of the vote. Single-digit support was reported for J. B. Pritzker, Wes Moore, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Chris Murphy and Rep. Ro Khanna. Undecided voters comprised 17% of respondents.
Official Methodology Statement
Noble Predictive Insights employed an opt-in online panel combined with text-to-web cell-phone outreach to assemble a national sample. The poll’s design targeted registered Democrats and left-leaning independents, producing weighted results intended to reflect the preferences of that electorate.
Criticism and Alternative Findings
An Emerson College Polling survey released in late May presented a contrasting picture. That poll reported Harris at 10% and Newsom at 16%, with neither candidate breaking the 20% threshold. It also highlighted rising support for Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (10%) and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (9%), suggesting a broader diffusion of voter preferences.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The divergent outcomes of the Center Square and Emerson College polls illustrate a lack of consensus on Democratic voter sentiment. Differences in sample size, timing, and methodology contribute to the discrepancy. Both surveys provide limited insight into the full field, as many candidates—including Mark Kelly, J. B. Pritzker, Wes Moore, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Chris Murphy, and Rep. Ro Khanna—registered single-digit support.
Implications for the 2028 Democratic Primary
The poll indicates that Harris remains the party’s front-runner, yet her support has slipped and other candidates have achieved double-digit or single-digit backing. The findings point to an increasingly fluid Democratic field, with other high-profile figures beginning to gain traction as the 2028 election cycle slowly takes shape.
