Story perspectives

Warsh Fed Holds Rates, Cuts Guidance, Halts Dot-Plot Publication

6/17/2026

Summary

Warsh Holds Rates

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh led June 16-17, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and June 18 press conference, and kept rate at 3.5%-3.75%.
Analysts say the move will trim forward guidance, stop publishing Summary of Economic Projections and dot-plot, and shorten press conferences while shifting to a quarterly schedule.
He noted May inflation of 4.2%, highest since April 2023, said AI-driven productivity gains could lower inflation, and labor market stayed near full employment.

Summary

Investors Expect Hold

Investors priced a 98.4% chance the Federal Reserve will keep the rate at 3.5%-3.75% unchanged at its June meeting.
CME FedWatch gave a 42.7% probability rates stay through December, beating a 25-basis-point cut.
UBS pushed its first Fed cuts to March and June 2027, with neutral Treasury holdings rising to 58% and a Duke poll showing 17 of 32 former Fed staff favoring a 2026 hike.

History

Historical Context

The 2008 financial crisis forced the FOMC to slash its target rate to 0-0.25% and expand the Fed’s balance sheet by $3.5 trillion to $4.5 trillion by March 2009. In June 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh left the benchmark at 3.5-3.75%, while CME Group’s FedWatch showed a 98.4% chance of no change, echoing the reliance on clear signaling first used in 2008.

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Warsh Holds Rates

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh led June 16-17, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and June 18 press conference, and kept rate at 3.5%-3.75%.
Analysts say the move will trim forward guidance, stop publishing Summary of Economic Projections and dot-plot, and shorten press conferences while shifting to a quarterly schedule.
He noted May inflation of 4.2%, highest since April 2023, said AI-driven productivity gains could lower inflation, and labor market stayed near full employment.

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