Full Breakdown
Russia’s Fuel Shortage Crisis Deepens Amid Ukrainian Drone Strikes
6/15/2026, 11:04:55 PM
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Russian Refineries
Since early 2026 Ukrainian drones have intensified attacks on Russian oil-processing sites. ACLED recorded 38 strikes between January and May, including 16 in May, raising the 2025 total to 658 deep attacks. Damage has concentrated on secondary units such as hydrocrackers, whose offline capacity rose by 1.2-1.3 million bpd in May, cutting diesel output by 10 % for a second month.
Relaxed Fuel Standards and Export Bans
To keep pumps open, the Energy Ministry extended a 2025 decree allowing gasoline with up to 150 ppm sulfur (?15 times EU limits) and diesel with up to 350 ppm. The same rule permits higher aromatic content. Concurrently, Russia banned gasoline exports through July 31, limited diesel exports for traders, and prohibited aviation-kerosene exports from June 1 to November 30.
Nationwide Rationing
Tatneft caps AI-92/AI-95 at 20 L and diesel at 40 L per vehicle; Rosneft limits 90 L per receipt; Lukoil caps 100 L. Restrictions now cover Moscow, St Petersburg, Karelia, Murmansk, Khabarovsk Krai, Buryatia, Crimea and other occupied areas, where 20 L weekly quotas apply. Aviation fuel at several airports is limited to the amount required for each flight.
Key Data
- Sulfur limit: 150 ppm gasoline, 350 ppm diesel.
- Diesel output down 10 % in May (after 10 % drop in April).
- Offline secondary capacity +1.2-1.3 million bpd vs. 2025.
- Hydrocracker loss: 250 k bpd (2026) vs. 50-60 k bpd (2025).
- Fuel-price rise in Karelia: AI-92 +1.7 %, AI-95 +1.4 % (early June).
- Disruptions reported in 25 regions, up from 15.
Official Statements
Governor Alexander Drozdenko (Leningrad region) said supplies were being delivered as planned and that there were no shortages. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged that several refineries were under unscheduled repairs while stressing the use of export infrastructure. The St. Petersburg Committee on Energy stated that there were no prerequisites for a fuel shortage. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the government was taking measures to address the shortage in Crimea.
Opposition Views
Residents of Khabarovsk Krai complained that gasoline vanished within 20 minutes of delivery. Analyst Maxim Belov (Evecta, Murmansk) warned that transport costs now exceed retail prices, threatening station viability. Independent observers cited “speculators selling gas at double the market price” and called the rationing “temporary hype” rather than a genuine shortage.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Supplies are being delivered according to plan, there are no shortages,” — Alexander Drozdenko, Governor, Leningrad region
- “We have a number of refineries under unscheduled repairs.” — Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister
- “the prerequisites for a shortage of fuel resources are entirely absent.” — St. Petersburg Committee on Energy
- “A fuel truck arrived at one of the gas stations, and the gasoline was gone in 20 minutes,” — Local resident, Khabarovsk Krai
Outlook
Export bans on gasoline and aviation fuel stay in force through July 31 and November 30. Moscow has created a task force of regional officials and industry players to monitor supplies. Analysts warn that further attacks on secondary refinery units could trigger tighter purchase caps or broader price controls.
