Gulf Nations Reassess U.S. Security Reliance After US-Iran Deal

On Sunday, the United States and Iran announced a preliminary agreement to halt the four-month war that saw Iranian forces and allied militias strike military bases, energy facilities, hotels and close the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf governments see the deal as a route to resume oil and gas exports and restore normal life.

The Straits Times

The conflict began in late February when the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran. Over nearly four months, Iranian drones evaded U.S. defenses and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global energy shipments. Gulf states—including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait—had warned that the United States was turning inward and reducing its willingness to intervene in Middle-East disputes. The hostilities spurred calls to diversify security partnerships beyond Washington.

New York TimesThe Straits Times

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, highlighted the shift in perception of the U.S. security guarantee. Bader al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, urged greater regional self-reliance. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are the primary Gulf actors evaluating their security strategies.

The Straits Times

• Conflict duration: almost four months.

New York Times

• U.S. military presence: thousands of soldiers across multiple Gulf bases.

New York Times

• Strategic disruption: the Strait of Hormuz was shut down, affecting oil and gas shipments.

New York Times

• Iran faces “immense” sanctions.

The Straits Times

Gulf officials, speaking anonymously, said the preliminary deal offers an opportunity to restart energy exports and to let residents resume normal activities. They also noted internal talks about reducing reliance on the United States while seeking security cooperation with nations acceptable to Washington. The United States and Iran have not released detailed terms, but the announcement signals mutual interest in de-escalation.

The Straits Times

Analysts argue the U.S. security guarantee proved unreliable during the conflict. The failure of U.S. defenses to intercept Iranian drones and the perceived unpreparedness for the Strait of Hormuz closure have prompted calls for Gulf states to develop independent defense capabilities and to coordinate regional procurement strategies.

New York Times

• “The U.S. security guarantee is no longer reliable in the way they thought it was,” — Sanam Vakil, Director, Chatham House

New York Times

• “Across the Gulf, Iran is facing immense sanctions,” — Bader al-Saif, Assistant Professor, Kuwait University

New York Times

• “Yet, they’re able to develop their own national defense infrastructure. We should do the same. We have the finances and the know-how.” — Bader al-Saif

New York Times

• “We need to work in tandem,” — Bader al-Saif

New York Times

• “For example, he said they should coordinate weapons procurement in a way that makes the most sense for the entire region.” — Bader al-Saif

New York Times

Experts anticipate Gulf states will explore joint defense projects, increase defense spending and seek technology transfers from European and Asian partners. Ongoing dialogue about the scope of the U.S. security umbrella and implementation of the preliminary deal will shape the region’s security architecture in the coming months.

New York Times