Andy Burnham's Makerfield By-Election: A Crucial Test for Labour

A by-election in Makerfield is set for Friday. Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is Labour’s candidate; a win would return him to Westminster and likely trigger a leadership contest against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage and the new Restore Britain party also contest, splitting the right-wing vote.

The IndependentThe IndependentIpsos PollingYouGov Polling US

Labour has faced setbacks since May, including Wes Streeting’s resignation and several ministerial exits. Burnham’s favourability fell: YouGov reports a net –11 (30 % like, 41 % dislike) and Ipsos a net –7 (26 % favourable, 33 % unfavourable), with the steepest drops among over-55s, Conservative voters and those critical of Labour.

Ipsos Polling

Nationally, YouGov and Ipsos show Burnham’s net favourability at –11 and –7. An Opinium poll of 543 voters puts Burnham at 46 % versus Reform UK’s 41 % and Restore Britain’s 7 %; the 5 % margin of error makes the lead statistically narrow. In a leadership head-to-head, 44 % prefer a Labour government led by Burnham, compared with 31 % for Reform, and Burnham leads Starmer by 13 percentage points on a “best Prime Minister” question.

Ipsos Polling

Starmer has said he will not walk away from his leadership. Labour allies argue the membership still backs Starmer and is not dominated by Corbyn supporters. Burnham’s team is drafting a Downing Street communications overhaul and cabinet line-up. Sir John Curtice warned Restore Britain could decide Reform’s fate, while Opinium’s James Crouch noted Burnham’s narrow lead in the final week.

The Independent

Farage dismisses Restore Britain as a “two-horse race”, calling it a spoiler. Labour allies cite Burnham’s two past leadership defeats (2010, 2015) as a liability. Demographic data shows his support slipping among older voters and Conservative supporters, questioning his ability to broaden Labour’s base.

The Independent

YouGov and Ipsos differ on Burnham’s net favourability (–11 vs –7) and on like/dislike proportions. The Makerfield poll shows a 46 % lead for Burnham but falls within the ±5 % margin of error, leaving the outcome uncertain. Analysis yet explains how the split right-wing vote will affect the final seat count.

YouGov Polling US

• “Their 6 or 7 per cent of the vote could be larger than, or similar to, what might be the Labour lead over Reform.” — Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader

The Independent

• “If you live in Makerfield and you would normally vote Green, Liberal Democrat, or anyone else, and you don't want Reform UK to win this seat, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop them,” — Tom de Grunwald, Founder, Forward Democracy

The Independent

• “James Crouch, Head of Policy & Public Affairs Research at Opinium said: "Andy Burnham enters the final week of the Makerfield by-election campaign ahead, but narrowly so.” — James Crouch, Head of Policy & Public Affairs Research, Opinium

The Independent

• “Labour members are not Corbynistas any more, many of them joined because of Keir. They like him” — Labour ally (source: The Independent)

The Independent