Makerfield By-Election: Labour’s Andy Burnham Faces Split Right-Wing Challenge

A parliamentary by-election will be held on Thursday in Makerfield. Labour’s Andy Burnham faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon and Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd. Internal modelling predicts Burnham to win with about 45 % of the vote, Reform around 41 % and Restore near 5 %.

The Independent

Andy Burnham, former Greater Manchester mayor, leads Labour. Reform UK fields Robert Kenyon, overseen by party leader Nigel Farage; board member Gawain Towler provides internal commentary. Restore Britain is headed by Rupert Lowe, with candidate Rebecca Shepherd, and receives public backing from X owner Elon Musk.

The Independent

The model estimates roughly 17,500 votes for Burnham, 16,000 for Kenyon and 2,000 for Shepherd, translating to 45 % Labour, 41 % Reform and 5 % Restore. An ally suggests Restore could rise to 8 % on a strong day, while Reform hopes a Green vote of 5 % or higher will erode Burnham’s base.

The Independent

Gawain Towler told Times Radio that Burnham changes the political climate and that beating him will be a very difficult task. A Reform insider said Burnham can attract Labour voters from 2024 and draw support from Green, Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters. The same source described Restore’s vote as extremely soft and said Reform lacks the sophistication to squeeze those voters. Nigel Farage dismissed the misogyny allegations against Kenyon as “pub talk”. Rupert Lowe projected that Restore could secure up to 8 %.

The Independent

Robert Kenyon has been accused of misogyny, a claim Farage labeled “pub talk”. Reform insiders describe Kenyon’s candidacy as “disastrous” and note the party’s struggle to counter Restore’s populist message. An ally warned that Reform shows “a lot of weaknesses” and has “lost its way”.

The Independent

Internal modelling shows Burnham ahead by five points, while Reform briefings claim the margin has narrowed to two points. Restore’s projected share varies between 5 % in the model and up to 8 % in an ally’s estimate. The claim that Burnham can win “2024 Labour voters who didn’t vote in 2026” lacks clarification.

The Independent

• “does change the weather” — Gawain Towler, Reform UK board member

The Independent

• “very, very hard task” — Gawain Towler, Reform UK board member

The Independent

• “Burnham is also able to squeeze Green, Lib Dem and Conservative voters effectively in a way other Labour figures can’t.” — Gawain Towler, Reform UK board member

The Independent

• “We need to win seats like Makerfield even with Burnham standing. This is exposing a lot of weaknesses in the operation.” — Reform ally

The Independent

The Thursday poll will decide whether Burnham retains the seat and how the divided right-wing vote shapes Reform UK’s strategy. A Reform win would signal resilience; a loss may trigger a reassessment of candidate selection and tactics.

The Independent