Full Breakdown
New i24NEWS Poll Shows Likud Losing Ground as Opposition Gains Edge Ahead of Israeli Elections
6/17/2026, 8:09:39 AM
Poll Reveals Shift in Projected Knesset Seats
A Direct Polls Ltd. survey commissioned by i24NEWS and fielded on 16 June 2026 with 588 adult respondents (±4 % margin of error, 95 % confidence) projects Likud at 28 seats, while the opposition bloc would hold 62 seats compared with 58 for the coalition. The projected distribution includes Yeshar (18), Together (12), The Democrats (11), Shas (9), Otzma Yehudit (9), Yisrael Beiteinu (9), United Torah Judaism (8), the Joint List (7), Ra’am (5) and the Religious Zionist Party (4).
Background & Context
The poll follows two recent developments: the 17-hour “Operation Roaring Lion” confrontation with Iran and the U.S.–Iran agreement announced by President Donald Trump. Both events have been cited by poll analyst Tzuriel Sharon as reshaping voter expectations. In parallel, Likud announced the cancellation of a planned campaign emphasizing Netanyahu’s ties to Trump, judging the messaging unlikely to improve electoral prospects.
Key Figures & Groups
- Benjamin Netanyahu – incumbent prime minister and Likud leader.
- Gadi Eisenkot – Likud-aligned MK, tied with Netanyahu (45 %) in a head-to-head suitability question.
- Tzuriel Sharon – CEO of Direct Polls Institute, providing analysis of the survey.
- Naama Lazimi – MK for The Democrats, vocal critic of Netanyahu’s motives.
- Opposition Bloc – coalition of Yeshar, Together, The Democrats and Arab parties.
Data & Statistics
- Seat projection: Likud 28; opposition 62; coalition 58.
- Prime-minister suitability: Netanyahu 45 %, Eisenkot 45 %, “neither” 10 %.
- Public view of Operation Roaring Lion (source 1): 42 % “partial victory,” 29 % “total failure,” 5 % “complete victory,” 21 % “partial failure.”
- Public view (source 3, right-wing respondents): 62 % “partial achievement,” ~25 % “complete failure,” 10 % “victory.”
Why It Matters / Impact
The projected opposition lead suggests a potential shift in the balance of power that could affect coalition formation, policy direction on security and domestic reforms, and Netanyahu’s ability to retain the premiership. Public dissatisfaction with the recent military operation appears to be influencing voter sentiment, especially within the right-wing base.
Official Statements & Responses
Direct Polls CEO Tzuriel Sharon described the survey as a “recalculation event” for the national camp, noting that Likud’s decline to 28 seats marks the lowest right-wing bloc total in recent years. He linked the shift to the “Trump effect” and the gap between expectations and the outcome of Operation Roaring Lion, which he said is “costing Netanyahu dearly.” Sharon also observed that missing mandates are not moving to the opposition but are instead causing voter disengagement within the right-wing electorate.
Likud’s internal decision-makers opted to scrap a campaign highlighting ties to Trump after assessing that the U.S.–Iran deal would not attract additional voters.
Criticism & Opposition
Opposition MK Naama Lazimi warned that Netanyahu might attempt to challenge election results, likening the risk to the U.S. Capitol attack of 6 January 2021. She accused Netanyahu of prioritizing personal political survival over national security and criticized coalition lawmakers for supporting policies she says undermine military service equity. Lazimi also highlighted a “despair graph” among right-wing voters, suggesting a “passive revolt” that could depress turnout.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on public assessments of Operation Roaring Lion: the i24NEWS poll reports 42 % partial victory and 29 % total failure, while Sharon’s commentary cites 62 % of right-wing respondents viewing it as a “partial achievement” and roughly a quarter labeling it a “complete failure.” The poll does not provide data on voter turnout intentions, leaving uncertainty about how disengaged right-wing voters may affect actual seat outcomes.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The current Direct Polls survey is not just another minor fluctuation on the graph,” — Tzuriel Sharon, CEO, Direct Polls Institute
- “The greater the expectation, the greater the disappointment: the expectations trap of Operation Roaring Lion is costing Netanyahu dearly,” — Tzuriel Sharon
- “Where are the missing mandates going? They are not crossing over to the opposition. Gadi Eisenkot is strengthening and rising to 18 seats, widening his lead over the Bennett-Lapid camp, which is now only one seat ahead of Yair Golan. But most disappointed right-wing voters have simply climbed onto the fence. This is a passive revolt. Traditional right-wing voters are telling us: ‘We are not going to vote for center-left parties, but we are also not going to leave home for the current leadership.’ For Likud, this is a dangerous internal circulation problem: those same people may stay home on election day.” — Tzuriel Sharon
- “I think Netanyahu is capable of anything, including starting a war to postpone the election,” — Naama Lazimi, MK, The Democrats
- “This man is truly the greatest cynic we have ever had,” — Naama Lazimi
What’s Next
The election date is expected around mid-October 2026. Legal challenges to the electoral process, as warned by opposition figures, and further polling will likely shape campaign strategies for both the Likud bloc and the opposition as they vie for a parliamentary majority.
