Full Breakdown
G7 Summit Confronts China Dependence in Critical Minerals
6/17/2026, 8:49:26 AM
Core Event: Negotiations on Critical Minerals at the Evian Summit
From June 15-17 2026, the leaders of the Group of Seven (France, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan) gathered in Évian-les-Bains, France, to negotiate a joint statement on critical-minerals supply chains. The United States, represented by Vice President JD Vance and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, put forward a proposal for a G7-led trading bloc that would apply price supports and guaranteed purchases for five-to-ten strategically important minerals (heavy rare earths, antimony, graphite, tungsten). The pricing mechanism, called OPEN, is an artificial-intelligence model developed by the Pentagon’s DARPA to strip out alleged Chinese market manipulation. France, holding the G7 presidency, seeks a broader multilateral framework, while the United States favours fast bilateral deals that could later be expanded.
Background & Context: China’s Dominance and Recent Export Curbs
China recorded a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025 and controls roughly 70 percent of global critical-minerals production. In 2025 Beijing imposed export curbs on permanent-magnet rare-earths, echoing earlier restrictions on tungsten and antimony, which disrupted Western defence, energy and technology sectors. G7 officials describe this as “predatory competition” and a “second China shock” that threatens economic sovereignty.
Key Figures & Groups
- Emmanuel Macron – French President, host, pushing a G7 statement.
- JD Vance – U.S. Vice President, architect of the price-support bloc.
- Jamieson Greer – U.S. Trade Representative, presenting the proposal.
- Ursula von der Leyen – EU Commission President, advocating “de-risk not decouple.”
- Matt Pearl – CSIS Strategic Technologies Program director, analysing U.S.–China dynamics.
- Nicola Beer – European Investment Bank, critic of the AI-based pricing.
- Sanae Takaichi – Japanese Prime Minister, proposing a joint stockpiling initiative.
- Friedrich Merz – German Chancellor, warning against unfair trade practices.
Data & Statistics
- China’s 2025 trade surplus: $1.2 trillion.
- Approximate share of critical-minerals supplied by China: ~70 %.
- Mining industry submitted >230 public comments on the U.S. proposal.
- G7’s share of global nominal GDP has fallen to ~44 % in 2026.
Why It Matters: Security, Green Energy, Economic Sovereignty
Critical minerals underpin semiconductors, defence systems, electric-vehicle batteries and renewable-energy technologies. Dependence on China raises national-security concerns, risks supply-chain disruptions, and could trigger protectionist measures that harm global markets. The proposed price supports aim to make Western mining financially viable, but the governance model and cost burden remain contested.
Official Statements & Responses
- The French presidency announced negotiations on texts that “are significant on critical minerals and, as a consequence, on economic sovereignty.”
- The United States frames price supports as a means to “protect production of critical minerals and derivative products.”
- The European Commission stresses a strategy of “de-risk not decouple,” rejecting a U.S.-controlled pricing formula.
- Japan’s Takaichi urged a “joint stockpiling cooperation initiative” to diversify supplies.
- Industry groups such as the National Mining Association recommend tax credits over price-fixing.
Criticism & Opposition
European officials argue the OPEN AI model would give Washington undue influence, preferring a market-based index derived from European deals. Mining companies are split: some support price floors, while others, including the National Mining Association, warn against excessive price-setting and call for incentive-based policies. The split between multilateral G7 coordination (favoured by France and Canada) and bilateral U.S. deals creates a governance impasse.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the appropriate pricing tool (AI-driven OPEN vs. EU-backed market index) and on the governance structure (multilateral bloc vs. bilateral agreements). No consensus exists on the timeline for implementation or on which minerals should be prioritized beyond the five-to-ten identified.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We are negotiating texts that are significant on critical minerals and, as a consequence, on economic sovereignty,” — French presidency official
- “This is, of course, not sustainable. As you know, in Europe, our strategy is very clear: de-risk not decouple,” — Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President
- “It’s really Macron making China the elephant in the room in an effort to show the U.S. that there are other countries that they can work with,” — Matt Pearl, CSIS
- “For Europe, it would be better to have a price index based on real deals in the European market.” — Nicola Beer, European Investment Bank
- “It is a very hard thing to do, and I'm happy I'm not the one doing it,” — Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes, minerals investor
- “What we're trying to do is take some of these approaches and turn them into an agreement,” — Jamieson Greer, U.S. Trade Representative
What’s Next
The United States plans to deliver binding bilateral proposals to the EU and Japan before the end of June, covering the identified minerals. The EU is advancing an alternative price index through EIT RawMaterials and the Metalshub platform. A separate G7 discussion on trade-defence measures is scheduled in Brussels, and further AI-related talks will continue alongside the critical-minerals agenda.
