Full Breakdown
Tom Fornelli’s 2026 College Football Overachiever Picks: A Deep-Dive
6/18/2026, 5:52:49 AM
Fornelli’s Five Overachiever Selections
CBS Sports analyst Tom Fornelli highlighted five FBS programs he believes could exceed their preseason win projections for 2026: the Florida Gators, Kansas State Wildcats, Michigan State Spartans, USC Trojans, and Virginia Tech Hokies.
Coaching Moves and Roster Shifts
Florida – Jon Sumrall arrives with a 28-4 conference record, three titles and an offense featuring Buster Faulkner and quarterback Aaron Philo; Kansas State – Collin Klein inherits a 2027 recruiting class ranked No. 30 nationally, highlighted by Florida athlete Brooklyn Maxey and Texas recruit Joshua Vilmael; Michigan State – Pat Fitzgerald returns with a 29-player transfer influx and a defense that ranked 118th in starting field position last season; USC – Lincoln Riley’s second year builds on returning quarterback Jayden Maiava and a defense that cut points allowed from 22.4 to 21.4 per game; Virginia Tech – James Franklin, from Penn State, inherits a schedule with one road test at Miami, aiming for ACC contention.
Projected Win Totals and Schedule Context
Fornelli’s models assign Florida 7.5 wins, Kansas State 8.5, Michigan State 3.5, and Virginia Tech 6.5. He does not publish a specific total for USC but flags the Trojans as a potential playoff contender if offensive and defensive trends continue. Florida’s SEC slate is described as relatively manageable, Kansas State avoids Texas Tech, BYU and Utah in its nine-game Big 12 schedule, and Virginia Tech’s only major road challenge is Miami.
Official Statements and Analyst Views
Sumrall’s hiring is praised as “pushing all the right buttons” and energizing a fanbase craving national relevance. Kansas State’s recruiting surge is called “the best class … in year one.” Analysts note Florida’s “more navigable slate” and USC’s “defensive upward trend” as factors that could translate into overachievement.
Criticism and Skepticism
Critics point to Michigan State’s heavy reliance on transfers and Florida’s unresolved quarterback battle between Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. Fornelli argues that the transfer depth and Sumrall’s recruiting momentum mitigate those concerns.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Avery Johnson, I cannot quit you.” — Tom Fornelli
- “I can't believe I'm doing this, but I'm buying the USC Trojans.” — Tom Fornelli
- “We're firmly in the offseason, a wonderful time of the year where projections and predictions pass the long wait before the season arrives, and anticipation is undoubtedly high for the Gators' first season under head coach Jon Sumrall.” — Tom Fornelli (CBS Sports)
- “This is just showing the recruiting prowess the [Gators] have.” — Steve Wiltfong, Rivals/On3 VP of Recruiting
What’s Next
The 2026 regular season opens in late August. Florida begins with a lighter SEC slate, Kansas State faces a nine-game Big 12 schedule without Texas Tech, BYU or Utah, USC meets former Big Ten powers Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana, and Virginia Tech’s early test is at Miami. Early results will reveal whether the five programs can convert preseason optimism into wins.
