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Dollar Index Hits 100.8 as Trump Signs Iran Deal

6/18/2026

36 2 Full Breakdown

Summary

Dollar Soars

US dollar index hit 100.8 on June 18, 2026, its strongest since May 2025.
Futures show a 69% chance of a September hike and an 83% chance of tightening, lifting the dollar 1% and pushing the yen to 160.94 per dollar.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh left rates at 3.50%-3.75% June 17, 2026.
President Donald Trump signed a U.S.–Iran deal on June 18, 2026, sending Brent to $78 a barrel and keeping the dollar up.

Summary

Warsh Forms Taskforces

Warsh created five task forces to review the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s balance sheet, communications and inflation framework.
Peter Williams warned the task forces could restart quantitative tightening or swap Treasury notes for bills by Q1 2026.
Money-market pricing shows a bear flattening with the narrowest two-year/ten-year spread in over a year, prompting David Mericle to say Fed projections may become stale if Strait of Hormuz shipping resumes.

Summary

XRP Falls

XRP fell to $1.17 on June 18, 2026, while open futures contracts reached 2.30 billion tokens, the highest volume since October.
Spot XRP exchange-traded funds attracted $5.3 million on June 16, bringing total net inflows to roughly $1.44 billion.
Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, said macro forces dominate price movements, noting Bitcoin fell near $64,196 and Ether dropped to $1,747.86.

Summary

BOJ Raises

The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1% on June 17, 2026.
The Bank of England’s May inflation held at 2.8%, a 13-month low, leading markets to price in a year-end hike.
Sweden’s Riksbank left its rate unchanged, warning Iran war fuels inflation.
Australia kept its cash rate at 4.35% June 16, 2026, while yen firmed to 160.22 per dollar.
The Australian dollar stayed flat at $0.7066, keeping traders alert for intervention.

History

Historical Context

After Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Fed chair in 1979, Volcker began tightening money by raising the federal-funds rate from about 11% to 12% in October and to a peak of 20% by June 1981, driving inflation from a 14.8% high in 1980 down to below 3% by 1983. In 2026, Fed chair Kevin Warsh kept the target range at 3.50-3.75%, echoing Volcker’s aggressive stance.

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Dollar Soars

US dollar index hit 100.8 on June 18, 2026, its strongest since May 2025.
Futures show a 69% chance of a September hike and an 83% chance of tightening, lifting the dollar 1% and pushing the yen to 160.94 per dollar.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh left rates at 3.50%-3.75% June 17, 2026.
President Donald Trump signed a U.S.–Iran deal on June 18, 2026, sending Brent to $78 a barrel and keeping the dollar up.

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