Full Breakdown
Makerfield By-Election Highlights Split in the Right-Wing Vote
6/18/2026, 9:11:51 PM
The Contest in Makerfield
The by-election in the Makerfield constituency (Greater Manchester) is held on Thursday, 23 June 2026. Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon and Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd. Independent data estimate Burnham at 45.5 %, Reform UK at 41 % and Restore Britain at 5 %. Reform’s own polling suggests a Burnham lead of five to eight points, while Opinium puts Burnham at 45 %, Reform UK at 40 % and Restore Britain at 6.5 %.
Background: Brexit’s Anti-Establishment Legacy
The 2016 EU referendum generated a “mutinous mood” in post-industrial towns, with voters using the Leave campaign to protest the political establishment. That anti-establishment sentiment later fed the rise of Reform UK and, in 2024, the splinter party Restore Britain founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe.
Key Players
- Andy Burnham – Labour candidate, former mayoral contender for Labour leadership.
- Robert Kenyon – Reform UK candidate, a plumber.
- Rebecca Shepherd – Restore Britain candidate, little local profile.
- Rupert Lowe – Founder of Restore Britain, former Reform MP.
- Gawain Towler – Reform UK board member who commented on Burnham’s campaign.
Data & Statistics
- Polls: Burnham 45.5 % (Independent), Reform UK 41 %, Restore Britain 5 % (Independent); Opinium: Burnham 45 %, Reform UK 40 %, Restore Britain 6.5 %.
- Social Market Foundation analysis: misinformation posts on local Facebook groups rose fourfold, with 1,800 posts examined across 66 000 members.
- Restore’s Facebook advertising outspent Reform UK by a factor of two in the constituency.
Official Statements & Responses
- Reform UK spokesperson: “The polling is clear: this by-election is a pure two-way fight between Reform and Labour. Nobody else is in this race.”
- Rupert Lowe (Restore) called media attacks “hit pieces” and said, “We’ve got the buggers on the run.”
- Gawain Towler (Reform) told Times Radio that Burnham “makes things very difficult” for Reform in Makerfield.
- Labour MP Rachael Maskell praised the campaign, saying Labour “has found its values and purpose again.”
Criticism & Opposition
The *Mail on Sunday* labelled Restore “the new home for neo-Nazis” and linked its activists to a “White Supremacy Summit”. The *Telegraph* interview with Lowe attacked “woke creeps”. Voter Pam Flaherty (70) expressed anti-immigration concerns while denying racism; Jeff (62) dismissed accusations of racism as “just sh**”.
On-the-Ground Reports
- Jack Jolley (Platt Bridge) switched from Reform to Restore after viewing Lowe’s anti-immigration videos.
- Sean (56, carpet layer) replaced a snapped Reform poster with a Restore banner on his front gate.
- Rebecca Shepherd’s name is not widely recognised locally, leading many voters to rely on party branding.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Restore’s projected vote share varies: 5 % (Independent) versus 6.5 % (Opinium) and up to 8 % in some local estimates. No definitive candidate profile appears in several reports, creating uncertainty about Restore’s local appeal.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We hear you!” — Andy Burnham, former Labour leadership candidate.
- “The Reform insider told The Independent: “Burnham is definitely able to get 2024 Labour voters who didn’t vote in 2026.” — Gawain Towler, Reform UK board member.
- “Restore Activists at ‘White Supremacy Summit’,” — *Mail on Sunday* headline.
- “If Rupert Lowe was in charge, I feel like the Army numbers would go up.” — Jack Jolley, Makerfield voter.
- “It’s like something from 1930s Germany.” — Mal Jones, former Green voter.
Why It Matters
A split in the right-wing vote could secure Burnham’s victory, potentially enabling him to challenge Labour leader Keir Starmer. The outcome also signals whether Reform UK can retain its position as the primary anti-establishment party or be eclipsed by a more hard-line faction.
What’s Next
Results are due Friday. A Burnham win may trigger a Labour leadership contest, while Restore’s performance will inform strategic calculations for the right ahead of the next general election.
