Full Breakdown
U.S.–Iran Deal Reopens Strait of Hormuz: Immediate Effects and Ongoing Uncertainties
6/18/2026, 10:08:47 PM
Deal and Immediate Lifting of the Blockade
On 18 June 2026 the United States announced the removal of its naval blockade of Iran, allowing oil tankers to resume passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed a tentative memorandum of understanding signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which extends a cease-fire and grants each side a 60-day window to negotiate broader issues. U.S. Central Command confirmed that American warships will remain in the area to monitor compliance.
Background: War, Blockade, and Negotiations
The Strait had been closed after U.S. and Israeli strikes on 28 February 2026, prompting Iran to block the waterway and the United States to impose a blockade on Iranian ports in April. The conflict disrupted roughly 20 percent of global oil flows. Negotiations culminated in the memorandum, which also calls for the dilution of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision and a pledge not to develop nuclear weapons.
Early Shipping Movements and Data
Within hours of the announcement, three Saudi-flagged VLCCs carrying ? 6 million barrels of crude entered the strait, and two Iranian-flagged tankers owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company transited with a combined ? 3.8 million barrels. Vice President JD Vance reported that > 12.5 million barrels moved through the strait on the night of 17 June. Lloyd’s List noted that, for the first time in 110 days, vessels owned by Grimaldi Group, Cosco, Knutsen and NYK passed the waterway. Trade-data firms estimate ? 118 tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, with a total of ? 550 merchant ships (? 250 tankers, ? 330 cargo vessels) awaiting exit.
Official Statements & Responses
- U.S. Administration: President Trump framed the agreement as essential to avoid an “economic catastrophe” and emphasized that the strait would be “permanently toll-free.” Vice President Vance said the United States will “honor our end of the early part of the agreement on the military side” and expects a “toll-free” regime for the long term.
- Iranian Leadership: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei endorsed direct talks, stating that future negotiations “will not mean accepting the enemy’s opinion.” Iranian officials indicated that the strait will be “toll-free for 60 days” before any service fees are considered.
- European Union: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced that the bloc will keep its sanctions on Iran in place pending further conditions.
Criticism & Opposition
Maritime analysts highlighted persistent risks: an estimated 80 underwater mines still block the central route, and the southern and northern alternatives have reduced capacity. BIMCO’s chief safety officer Jakob Larsen warned that “the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile” and that “the threat of mines in Hormuz remains a major concern.” Insurers have largely withdrawn war-risk coverage, creating a “chicken-and-egg” dilemma for shipowners. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf characterized the memorandum as a “record of US failure” and warned that tolls may be imposed after the grace period.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Traffic Volume: Trump’s claim of “ships of the world…starting to move” contrasts with BBC Verify data showing only seven vessels have transited since the deal, while other sources report 25-50 ships per day.
- Toll vs. Fee: Iranian officials refer to “service fees,” whereas U.S. officials maintain the strait will remain “toll-free.” Legal scholar James R. Holmes asserts that international law does not permit such charges.
- Mine Clearance Timeline: U.S. officials estimate de-mining could be completed within 30 days; other analysts project a 40-50-day effort.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” — President Donald Trump, Truth Social post.
- “It is obvious that the face-to-face negotiations that will be held in the future will not mean accepting the enemy’s opinion,” — Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, state-media statement.
- “is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time,” — Vice President JD Vance, remarks to reporters.
- “There is no provision in international law for a coastal state charging for passage through a natural waterway, whether you call it a toll or a fee or whatever,” — James R. Holmes, chair of maritime strategy, U.S. Naval War College.
- “Our expectation is that the strait is going to be opened in a toll-free way for the long term, and that's the sort of thing that we're going to figure out in these technical negotiations,” — Vice President JD Vance, CNBC interview.
What’s Next
The memorandum triggers a 60-day negotiation clock on Iran’s nuclear program and a 30-day timeline for the United States to lift its blockade fully. Simultaneously, Iran and Oman are slated to coordinate safe-passage protocols, while the Joint Maritime Information Center monitors threat levels. Industry observers expect a phased increase in transits, contingent on verified mine clearance and clarified fee structures.
