SpaceX Shares Plunge After $60 B Cursor Acquisition

On June 18, 2026, SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI-coding startup Cursor. Within 24 hours, SpaceX shares fell more than 6 % to just under $179, extending a prior 5 % drop and erasing roughly $620 billion of market value. The deal represents about 3.4 % dilution of the company’s $1.77 trillion IPO valuation.

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SpaceX’s public debut generated unprecedented demand: investors bought $369.8 million of shares in the first three sessions, outpacing Nvidia’s $88.2 million in the same period. The stock surged 50 % above its $135 IPO price, briefly ranking the firm as the world’s fourth-largest company by market cap. Options trading launched on the same day, enabling bets against the stock.

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• Elon Musk – CEO of SpaceX, whose net worth fell $67.8 billion to about $1.2 trillion after the sell-off.

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• Cursor – AI coding startup targeted for acquisition.

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• Analyst Voices – Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan, Morningstar analysts, Susquehanna’s Chris Murphy, PitchBook’s Franco Granda, Swissquote’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya, among others, provided divergent assessments.

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• Share price: $179 (down >6 %).

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• Market-value loss: $620 billion (from $2.99 trillion to $2.37 trillion).

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• Dilution: 3.4 % of post-deal equity.

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• Morningstar fair-value estimate: $62 per share (down from $63).

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• Susquehanna noted a 15 % probability the stock could lose half its value within three months due to option activity.

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The plunge underscores investor sensitivity to large-scale equity deals that dilute existing holdings. SpaceX’s valuation shift moved it from fourth to seventh globally, while Musk’s personal wealth slipped below the $1.4 trillion peak that briefly made him the world’s richest person. Analysts warn that the company’s market price remains tied to “novel and untested” technologies and heavy cash consumption, especially in the Starlink segment.

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Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan praised the acquisition, projecting a potential share price of $250 by year-end. Morningstar analysts warned of “significant dilution” and labeled the firm “significantly overvalued.” Susquehanna’s Chris Murphy highlighted option-driven volatility, estimating a 15 % chance of a 50 % price decline. PitchBook’s Franco Granda likened SpaceX’s trading dynamics to “Tesla on steroids.” Swissquote’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya described the stock as a “meme” driven by herd buying and flagged “burning cash” concerns.

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Critics argue the Cursor deal inflates expectations without proven AI revenue, deepening cash-burn risks. The dilution reduces existing shareholders’ ownership stakes, prompting fears of overvaluation. Some analysts view SpaceX as a speculative meme stock, vulnerable to rapid sentiment swings.

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Forecasts diverge sharply: Oppenheimer anticipates a rise to $250, while Morningstar’s fair-value estimate caps at $62. No detailed breakdown of Cursor’s projected AI revenue or integration timeline was disclosed, leaving a data gap that fuels uncertainty.

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• “This deal is beneficial for both sides,” — Timothy Horan, Oppenheimer analyst

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• “significantly overvalued” — Morningstar analysts

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• “novel and untested.” — Morningstar analysts

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• “on steroids,” — Franco Granda, PitchBook analyst

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• “burning cash,” — Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote analyst

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• “in the expectation that others will buy too and push the price higher.” — Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote analyst

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Option trading is expected to intensify, potentially amplifying price swings. Analysts will monitor Cursor’s integration and any emerging AI revenue streams, while further equity research reports are slated for release in the coming weeks.

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