Full Breakdown
Matt Dunlap Wins Democratic Primary in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District via Ranked-Choice Tabulation
6/20/2026, 12:53:02 PM
Background: Open Seat and Ranked-Choice Voting
Maine’s 2nd District became open after Rep. Jared Golden announced he would not seek a fifth term. The state’s ranked-choice voting (RCV) system, in place since 2018, requires a candidate to obtain a majority (>50 %) after successive rounds of vote transfers. No Democratic contender cleared that threshold on June 9, triggering a statewide tabulation.
Timeline of the Tabulation
- June 9, 2026 – Primary election; first-choice results show Joe Baldacci leading.
- June 12 – Secretary of State staff begin importing ballot data from 487 municipalities.
- June 17–18 – Minor discrepancies (e.g., South Berwick, Searsmont) delay the count.
- June 19, early morning – Final RCV results released, confirming Dunlap’s victory.
Vote Totals and Transfer Patterns
First-round tallies: Baldacci 31.6 %, Matt Dunlap 29.3 %, Jordan Wood 28.8 %, Paige Loud 10.3 % (source 38). After Loud’s elimination, Wood was removed in the second round; 63 % of Wood’s and Loud’s votes transferred to Dunlap, while Baldacci received 37 % of those transfers (source 7). Dunlap finished with 52 % of the final round, Baldacci with 48 % (source 8). Reported final margins vary slightly—52 % (source 8), 52.5 % (source 14), and 52 % (source 38).
Implications for the 2026 House Race
The district, which voted for Donald Trump by nine points in 2024, is classified by the Cook Political Report as “likely Republican.” Democrats view the seat as a top target to retain a narrow House majority; Republicans see it as a prime pickup opportunity. Dunlap’s progressive platform—Medicare for All, universal childcare, higher taxes on the wealthy—contrasts with former Gov. Paul LePage, the unopposed Republican nominee.
Official Statements & Responses
- Matt Dunlap emphasized voter demand for change and pledged to defeat LePage, noting his record on election integrity.
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) acknowledged backing state Sen. Joe Baldacci but noted the outcome reflects voter preference.
- Real Change PAC disclosed a $500,000 spend supporting Dunlap; the DCCC framed the expenditure as a Republican-linked intervention.
- Our Revolution and National Nurses United publicly endorsed Dunlap’s campaign.
Criticism & Opposition
- Baldacci’s campaign criticized the DCCC’s involvement as “thumb-on-the-scale.”
- Republican gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles labeled the RCV process “simply too slow and too complicated,” arguing it erodes trust (source 17).
- Maine GOP executive director Jason Savage reiterated the party’s desire to repeal RCV despite recent strategic adoption.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on Dunlap’s final percentage (52 % vs. 52.5 %). Vote-transfer figures for Wood’s supporters are reported as 63 % to Dunlap and 37 % to Baldacci (source 7) versus a “nearly 18-point” advantage for Dunlap in the final allocation (source 14). No source provides a complete precinct-level breakdown, which the Secretary of State plans to release later.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Today’s results tell us that people want real change and a better future,” — Matt Dunlap
- “Together, we’re going to defeat Paul LePage one more time and make sure he’s never on the ballot again,” — Matt Dunlap
- “Ranked-choice voting means a lot of you ranked more than one of us, and I’m grateful for every one of those votes, in whatever order they came,” — Hannah Pingree
- “It is breaking down trust and integrity in our electoral process, and that is unacceptable,” — Bobby Charles
- “The Maine Democrats gave us Ranked Choice Voting,” — David Jones
- “Ranked-choice voting is an asset in the state of Maine, it’s also an asset for this campaign,” — Nirav Shah
What’s Next
Dunlap will face Paul LePage in the November 3 general election. Campaign fundraising is expected to intensify, with both national parties earmarking resources for the district. Maine’s Secretary of State will post official results within 20 days, and a recount could be requested by any candidate finishing in the top three of the penultimate round.
