Full Breakdown
Iran’s Dispute Over the Strait of Hormuz Following the US-Iran MOU
6/20/2026, 6:21:54 AM
MOU and Immediate Developments
On June 18, 2026, US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding requiring the United States to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for 60 days. US Central Command reported the blockade ended June 19. Hours later Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) broadcast a maritime warning that the United States had violated the MOU and that the strait would stay closed until Israel withdrew from Lebanon, the blockade was fully lifted, and American forces left the Persian Gulf.
Competing Iranian Statements
The Iranian Foreign Ministry, through spokesman Esmail Baghaei, said there was “no basis for claims that Iran has shut the strategic shipping route.” A second ministry official, Esmaeil Baqaei, said merchant vessels continued to transit safely under the MOU. The United States has not commented; US Central Command noted some US ships remained nearby despite the lifted blockade.
Expert Analysis and Criticism
Analyst Simcha Brodsky (OSINT613) said the IRGC is exploiting the MOU’s phased lift, which calls for a full lift “within 30 days,” allowing Tehran to claim the United States has not yet complied. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, warned that Iran’s ability to “hold the strait hostage” creates a lasting strategic risk.
Regulatory Changes and Market Implications
Tehran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) issued “terms and conditions” for vessels. The MOU bars fees for 60 days, but the PGSA reserves the right to impose charges later and now requires a transit permit, a rule not in place before the February 28 war start. The strait moves about one-fifth of global crude oil and significant LNG, so any disruption can affect energy prices.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
The IRGC’s closure warning conflicts with the Foreign Ministry’s claim that navigation remains open. The United States and independent maritime monitors have not provided verification of traffic as of June 19. The presence of US vessels in the area is unclear, and nuclear talks scheduled within the 60-day window were postponed without explanation.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Since Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, the complete lifting of the naval blockade, and the withdrawal of American terrorist forces from the Persian Gulf and the region are among the main conditions of the agreement between Iran and the United States, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until these conditions are met,” — IRGC, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
- “no basis” for claims that Iran has shut the strategic shipping route.” — Esmail Baghaei, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman
- “What we’re seeing is a direct result of the wording in the US-Iran MoU. The deal lifts the US blockade in phases (‘fully within 30 days’), so the US is mid-process by design,” — Simcha Brodsky, OSINT613 analyst
- “They have found the strait can be held hostage, that they can do whatever they want to do, whenever they want to do it,” — Beni Sabti, Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University
