Leave-Voting Areas See Faster Growth in Foreign Workforce and Rising Deprivation a Decade After Brexit

The 2016 EU referendum split the country; many Leave areas already faced economic weakness. PAYE data show foreign-worker share in strong Leave seats doubled, rising from under 5 % to just under 10 % in Makerfield between June 2016 and Dec 2024. Nationally the share grew 40 % and the fastest absolute gains occurred in Leave constituencies because of low baselines. Deprivation indices for 2015-2025 reveal Leave seats such as Boston, Skegness, Hartlepool, North Warwickshire and Bedworth falling in health, housing and crime rankings, while affluent Remain seats (Bristol Central, Clapham & Brixton Hill, Cambridge) improved.

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• Migration: Health- and care-visa arrivals peaked at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023; net migration fell thereafter as visas expired. Makerfield foreign-worker share rose from <5 % (June 2016) to <10 % (Dec 2024); nationally the share grew 40 % (2016-2024), doubling in strongest Leave seats.

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• Deprivation: Makerfield’s overall rank slipped 7 places (housing –52, crime –127). Higher Leave vote shares are linked to higher early-death risk, more health-benefit claimants and more severe-illness hospital admissions.

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• Remain strongholds: Bristol Central, Clapham & Brixton Hill, and Cambridge recorded the largest improvements in health, housing and services rankings (2015-2025).

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Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, says rapid demographic shifts can be politically salient even when numbers are modest. He cautions against attributing all recent economic difficulties to Brexit, noting that more affluent, higher-skill areas were historically more resilient. He also cites Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and manufacturing decline as forces deepening deprivation in less prosperous, Leave-voting locales.

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The analysis warns the trends are not direct cause-and-effect. Economic weakness in many Leave constituencies predates the referendum, and research shows immigration has had limited impact on wages and employment for UK-born workers. Blaming Brexit alone for rising deprivation would overlook multiple intersecting factors.

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• “People react to change,” — Anand Menon, Director, The UK in a Changing Europe

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• “He said: “It’s all too easy to blame Brexit for everything that’s gone wrong in the last few years but it’s not the whole story.” — Anand Menon

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• “Given what’s happened with Covid-19, the war in Ukraine, and what’s happened to manufacturing it’s not surprising that less prosperous places, many of which voted to leave, have become relatively more deprived.” — Anand Menon

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• “It was always the case that more affluent places, that have a higher skilled workforce, were more resilient.” — Anand Menon

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The findings show that migration and deprivation have diverged along the 2016 referendum line, widening regional inequality. Policymakers must address the combined effects of demographic change, pre-existing economic structures and external shocks rather than attributing outcomes solely to Brexit.

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