Toy Story 5 Poised for Record-Breaking Opening Amid Mixed Critical Reception

Disney and Pixar’s fifth installment of the “Toy Story” franchise is set to open this weekend with projections that could make it the largest opening of the year. Early estimates range from $145 million to $175 million, positioning the film to surpass the current year-leader, “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie,” which opened with $131.7 million.

Variety Magazine

The series’ most recent entry, “Toy Story 4” (2019), opened with $120.9 million and ultimately earned more than $1 billion worldwide. The franchise consistently generates over $1 billion annually from ancillary products, games, and publishing. The upcoming sequel follows a pattern of strong theatrical draws and extensive merchandising.

Variety Magazine

Pre-release data show $17.5 million in preview earnings, the highest preview total of 2026, overtaking “Michael’s” $12.6 million and ranking second only to the $18.5 million preview for “Incredibles 2” (2018). Industry trackers cite a $160 million opening window, while other analysts forecast $145–$150 million. The film’s production budget stands at $250 million, with additional marketing costs, suggesting a high profit margin if projections hold.

Variety Magazine

Disney’s internal communications describe the release as a “major box-office gift,” emphasizing the $160 million opening target. The studio also notes that audiences awarded the film an A CinemaScore, indicating strong viewer satisfaction. Director Andrew Stanton, joined by co-director Kenna Harris, is credited with steering the sequel, while the voice roster returns Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, and Joan Cusack and adds Conan O’Brien and Greta Lee.

Hollywood Reporter

The New York Times review characterizes the sequel as “fine, pretty and amusing,” but questions its emotional depth, suggesting that “if no one’s heart seems in it, perhaps it’s time to make way for other toys.” This critique highlights a perceived shortfall in narrative resonance despite the film’s technical polish.

New York Times

Sources diverge on the opening-weekend forecast: Variety cites a $145–$150 million range, whereas the Hollywood Reporter references a broader $160 million estimate. No definitive figure has been confirmed by Disney, leaving the exact magnitude of the debut uncertain.

Variety Magazine

• “Disney and Pixar are unwrapping a major box office gift with Toy Story 5, which is headed toward the biggest opening of the year so far in the $160 million range.” — *Hollywood Reporter*

Hollywood Reporter

• “It’s fine, pretty and amusing, but if no one’s heart seems in it, perhaps it’s time to make way for other toys.” — *The New York Times*

New York Times

• “Popular on Variety In “Toy Story 5,” technology is the new villain.” — *Variety*

Variety Magazine

• “The voice cast brings back Tom Hanks, Tim Allen and Joan Cusack, while introducing Conan O’Brien and Greta Lee to the mix.” — *Variety*

Variety Magazine

The same weekend will also see the releases of A24’s “The Death of Robin Hood” (starring Hugh Jackman) and Neon’s horror title “Leviticus,” each projected to earn $3–$4 million. Their modest openings contrast sharply with the anticipated scale of “Toy Story 5,” underscoring the sequel’s potential to dominate the box-office landscape.

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