Gold Prices Slip as Fed Signals Hawkish Stance Under New Chair Kevin Warsh

At its June meeting the Federal Reserve left the policy rate at 3.50-3.75% but, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, removed language hinting at future cuts and labeled inflation “elevated.” Warsh said “financial markets are the most important source to guide central bankers” and pledged to use all tools to achieve the 2 % inflation target. Nine of 19 policymakers now anticipate at least one rate hike before year-end.

Gold extends losses on hawkish Federal Reserve stance

London’s 3 pm fixing placed gold between $4,122 and $4,150 per ounce, its lowest in 30 weeks, while silver slipped below $65. The U.S. Dollar Index rose to a 13-month high of 101.10. CME FedWatch now assigns about a 70 % chance of a 25-basis-point hike by September and a 61 % probability the funds rate will sit in the 4.00-4.25% band by December 2026. Goldman cites central-bank buying of roughly 50 tonnes per month as a structural support for gold.

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The Fed’s statement reaffirmed a “commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2 % target” and warned that “additional adjustments are coming.” Dubai’s Multi Commodities Centre announced a regulated spot gold T+0 contract launching Monday, while StoneX plans a retail bar and coin store in Singapore to expand its fulfillment network.

Gold Hit the Brakes Hardest Since 1981 on Warsh's 'Hawkish' US Fed

Gold analysts warned that higher-for-longer rates could diminish gold’s appeal as a hedge. Goldman Sachs cautioned that “demand for gold as a macro policy hedge could unwind…with prices falling to $4,400 by year-end” if hikes materialize.

Goldman Cuts Gold Forecast by $500 as Fed Holds Rates

Sources report gold’s Friday close at $4,122, $4,148 or $4,150 and describe the weekly loss as either a 2.5 % decline or a “third consecutive weekly decline.” Goldman projects rate cuts only in June and December 2027, while FedWatch prices a first hike as early as September 2026.

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• “Financial markets are the most important source to guide central bankers,” — Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair

Gold Hit the Brakes Hardest Since 1981 on Warsh's 'Hawkish' US Fed

• “Key comments from Warsh included: • Inflation remains well above the 2% target due to the Iran war.” — Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair

Gold extends losses on hawkish Federal Reserve stance

• “Our gold price views remain structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk.” — Lina Thomas, Goldman Sachs analyst

Goldman Cuts Gold Forecast by $500 as Fed Holds Rates

• “If the Fed were to hike rates, they warned: “Demand for gold as a macro policy hedge could unwind more persistently, with prices falling to $4,400 by year-end.” — Rob Kaplan, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs

Goldman Cuts Gold Forecast by $500 as Fed Holds Rates

The Fed’s July meeting will test whether the hike probability rises, and the December session could lock in a higher-for-longer rate path. Goldman now targets $4,900 per ounce for year-end 2026, with upside above $6,000 if geopolitical stress returns. The DMCC spot contract and StoneX’s Singapore expansion may boost physical-gold liquidity.

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