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Small Ocean Warming Could Collapse West Antarctica, Add 4 m Sea-Level Rise

6/21/2026

Summary

Story summary

Scientists modeling the West Antarctic Ice Sheet say 0-0.25 °C ocean warming could cause a collapse adding four metres of sea level.
The collapse would become self-sustaining via marine ice-sheet instability if warming stops.
Four metres of sea-level rise would unfold over centuries to millennia, establishing a equilibrium.
The model was calibrated with 800,000-year simulations.
Thwaites Glacier Collaboration will test if deep-ocean temperatures near the 0.25 °C threshold, noting study lacks consensus.

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Story summary

Scientists modeling the West Antarctic Ice Sheet say 0-0.25 °C ocean warming could cause a collapse adding four metres of sea level.
The collapse would become self-sustaining via marine ice-sheet instability if warming stops.
Four metres of sea-level rise would unfold over centuries to millennia, establishing a equilibrium.
The model was calibrated with 800,000-year simulations.
Thwaites Glacier Collaboration will test if deep-ocean temperatures near the 0.25 °C threshold, noting study lacks consensus.