Tactical Voting Threatens Reform UK's Prospects After Makerfield By-Election

The 2024 Makerfield by-election gave Labour’s Andy Burnham 55 % of the vote, beating Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by over 9,000 votes. The Greens and Liberal Democrats fell to 0.7 % (308 votes) and 0.4 % (163 votes); the right-wing Restore party, led by Rupert Lowe, placed third with 6.8 %.

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Reform UK, founded by Nigel Farage, markets itself as a right-wing alternative to the Conservatives. In 2019 the Brexit Party agreed not to contest 317 Tory seats, avoiding vote-splitting. Polling now suggests such cooperation will be “too difficult” because the parties compete directly and have grown mutually hostile.

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Burnham (Labour) 55 %; Reform lost by >9,000 votes; Greens 0.7 % (308); Lib Dems 0.4 % (163); Restore 6.8 % (third). Savanta finds left-wing voters more likely to vote tactically, while Reform supporters are “the most ardent” in refusing to switch.

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Neal Lawson of Compass said informal deals among Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats could boost tactical voting, but Greens would need a guarantee on proportional representation to cooperate. Chris Hopkins of Savanta noted that anti-Tory campaigning has made tactical voting “more prevalent” on the left, while Reform voters remain reluctant to switch. Lord Robert Hayward warned that tactical voting poses a major obstacle for Reform and singled out Restore as a particular threat. A Reform insider urged the party to “address tactical voting” by appearing more reasonable and cooperative.

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Lord Hayward noted that many Restore voters “don’t like Farage,” labeling them a “big problem” for Reform. Within Reform, Kemi Badenoch’s rising popularity is said to generate an “unwillingness to co-operate.” Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green leaders have avoided discussing electoral pacts, fearing accusations of a “stitch-up” by the Tories and Reform.

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• “Whichever block, left or right, best utilises its vote will win the election.” — Chris Hopkins, Savanta

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• “Tactical voting is a big challenge for Reform,” — Lord Robert Hayward, Conservative peer

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• “The Greens aren’t in politics to play second fiddle and bend to Labour,” — Neal Lawson, Compass

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• “The fact Andy Burnham wants PR tells you everything you need to know about his attitude to co-operation with other progressive parties,” — Clive Lewis, Labour MP

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Burnham’s PR support could spark informal “non-aggression” deals in target seats, potentially reshaping Labour’s stance on electoral reform. Reform insiders say Farage must “get on top of” tactical-voting concerns and show openness to issue-based cooperation to avoid marginalisation at the next general election.

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