Gen Z Earnings Outpace Millennials at Same Age, Yet NEET Crisis Threatens Future Gains

On 22 June 2026 the Resolution Foundation released a study comparing Gen Z (born 1997-2012) with millennials (born early 1980s-mid 1990s). Real weekly pay at age 24 for the late-1990s cohort is 12 % higher than for the late-1980s cohort. The bottom-10 % saw real pay rise 36 % from 2012 to 2025, driven largely by minimum-wage increases since 2016, while median hourly earnings for 22- to 29-year-olds grew 15 % (vs 4 % for 30-plus). The report notes about 1 million 16- to 24-year-olds are NEETs, warns of a possible 25 % increase, and projects up to 25 million at-risk youths by the early 2030s without policy action.

The Guardian

Early-career earnings suggest a reversal of the generational pay gap, yet the report cautions that the trend is vulnerable to inflation, prices and slower growth linked to the war in the Middle East. A rising NEET population could depress labour-market participation, increase fiscal pressures and erode living-standard improvements for Gen Z. The Foundation frames the pay rebound as fragile and contingent on policy action.

The Guardian

Resolution Foundation senior economist Charlie McCurdy described the earnings uplift as a “mini pay rebound” for the oldest Gen Z workers while noting the broader stagnation experienced by millennials. Former Labour minister Alan Milburn warned that Britain faces a risk of a 25 % rise in NEET numbers. The Foundation has urged the government to prioritize policies that reduce NEET rates and sustain wage growth.

The Guardian

The projection of up to 25 million at-risk youths by the early 2030s is presented without a detailed methodology, and the report provides no comparative estimates from other agencies, leaving uncertainty about the scale of the potential crisis.

The Guardian

• “Charlie McCurdy, senior economist of the Resolution Foundation, said: “The living standards stagnation of the millennial generation has been well documented over the past decade.” — Charlie McCurdy, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation

The Guardian

• “Many have speculated that the breakdown of generational progress has continued for gen Z too.” — Charlie McCurdy, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation

The Guardian

• “For a significant share of younger members of gen Z, their careers have not got off the ground at all,” — Resolution Foundation

The Guardian

• “Britain’s Neet crisis presents a huge, long-term challenge for gen Z, and tackling it should be a top priority for the government.” — Resolution Foundation

The Guardian

• “The former Labour minister Alan Milburn warned last month that Britain is at risk of a 25% rise in the number of Neets to 1.” — Alan Milburn, former Labour minister

The Guardian

The full Resolution Foundation report will be released Thursday, and the think-tank has warned that urgent government action is needed to address the NEET surge and preserve Gen Z wage gains.

The Guardian