Full Breakdown
USMCA Review and Screwworm Outbreak Put North American Beef Market at Risk
6/22/2026, 12:50:37 PM
Core Event: USMCA Review Amid a Screwworm Crisis
In June 2026, U.S. and Mexican trade negotiators convened to discuss the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), whose six-year joint review is due by July 1, 2026. President Donald Trump warned that Washington could refuse to renew the pact and might withdraw entirely. At the same time, a screwworm infestation that originated in Mexican cattle has spread into south-Texas and New Mexico, contributing to a U.S. cattle herd that has fallen to levels not seen since the 1950s. The combined pressure of trade uncertainty and a livestock disease has driven ground-beef prices up more than 20 % since January 2025.
Timeline of Key Developments
- Early 2025: Ground-beef prices begin a sustained rise, exceeding 20 % year-to-date.
- 2025: Live cattle imports into the United States drop by over 50 % amid drought and early disease concerns.
- June 16-17 2026: U.S. and Mexican negotiators meet; President Trump signals possible USMCA non-renewal.
- June 2026: Screwworm confirmed in cattle in south-Texas and New Mexico; Canada imposes bans on live cattle from the affected region.
- July 1 2026: Deadline for the three parties to decide on extending the USMCA for another 16 years.
Data & Statistics on Beef Trade and Prices
- Ground-beef price increase: >20 % since January 2025.
- U.S. cattle herd: lowest since the 1950s, partly due to drought and screwworm.
- Live cattle imports from Mexico (2026): >80 % decline in “feeder” cattle.
- 2024 imports: 2.1 million head from Mexico and Canada, valued at >US$3 billion.
- 2024 slaughter: ?32 million head in the United States.
- 2025 U.S. beef exports: Mexico – US$1.3 billion (3rd-largest market); Canada – US$874 million (4th-largest).
- Combined imports of beef to the United States from Canada and Mexico: >US$5 billion.
Official Statements & Responses
President Donald Trump publicly cautioned that the United States “may not renew the agreement” negotiated during his first term and could withdraw altogether. U.S. and Mexican officials proceeded with bilateral talks while Canada, whose relationship with Trump is strained, opted out of the June 2026 session. The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA in 2020, requires a joint decision by July 1, 2026 to extend the pact for another 16 years; otherwise, it reverts to annual reviews until its 2036 expiration. Beef products remained exempt from the tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada in 2025.
Criticism & Opposition
Agricultural economists note that the timing of trade uncertainty “could not come at a worse moment for inflation-weary consumers,” warning that further supply tightening may exacerbate price pressures. The administration’s “more protectionist and transactional approach” is cited as a risk to the integrated North American beef market that relies on low tariffs and harmonized regulations.
Why It Matters: Consumer Prices and Supply-Chain Risks
The integrated market enables seamless movement of feeder cattle from Mexico and fed cattle from Canada to U.S. packing plants, stabilizing supply and moderating prices. Disruptions—whether from a disease outbreak or a potential USMCA withdrawal—threaten to raise consumer beef costs, strain livestock producers, and alter trade balances that currently generate billions of dollars in cross-border commerce.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The sources do not provide precise figures for the total cattle loss attributable to the screwworm or detailed projections of future price trajectories. Information on mitigation strategies beyond Canada’s import bans is also absent.
What’s Next: Negotiations and Disease Control
The parties must reach a decision on the USMCA by July 1, 2026, with the possibility of bilateral renegotiations if consensus fails. Simultaneously, U.S. animal-health agencies are monitoring the screwworm spread and coordinating containment efforts, while Canada’s import restrictions remain in effect. The outcomes will shape North American beef supply, pricing, and trade relations for the coming decade.
