Full Breakdown
Kremlin's Secret Polling Network Tracks War Support and Putin Approval
6/22/2026, 9:54:42 PM
Leaked Forecast Slides Reveal Kremlin's Secret Polling Network
On June 22, Russian independent outlet Verstka published two slides showing internal forecasts of President Vladimir Putin’s approval and United Russia’s projected State Duma election results. The slides were prepared by state pollster VTsIOM using closed-polling data and presented at internal round tables in late May. A source close to the presidential administration said the material was part of routine “stress-scenario testing.”
State Pollsters and Security Agencies Behind Closed Polling
The network combines the work of VTsIOM, the state pollster FOM, and the Federal Protective Service (FSO), which runs its own sociological service. The FSO can cross-reference census records and phone-owner data to adjust samples when respondents refuse contact. A sociology lecturer explained that “elderly women often open the doors, and young men hang up,” prompting analysts to weight findings accordingly.
Approval Ratings and Election Projections in Closed Polls
Closed-polling figures kept internal show Putin’s approval above 70 %, with a weekly rating of 66.6 % on May 31, a decline of nearly ten points since the start of 2026. United Russia’s projected Duma result was presented as a conservative baseline, assuming no major shock such as mobilization or an end to the war.
Official Statements & Responses
Kremlin-aligned sources emphasized that stress-scenario testing is routine and not a sign of crisis. They also noted that online-behavior reports from a Kremlin media structure “land on the desk of the sociologists.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed Ukrainian intelligence obtained the leaked material, suggesting it was prepared for Russian leadership, a claim the Kremlin source disputed.
Criticism & Opposition
A 2023 study by the pollster Russian Field found 93 % of approached respondents declined participation, with 5 % hanging up immediately. Analysts describe selective disclosure as the primary lever: uncomfortable figures are omitted from public view while still guiding internal decisions. A source in a major Kremlin-aligned organization warned, “When the people reach their breaking point, polls definitely won’t be needed.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Open-format trust ratings published by VTsIOM in March showed fewer than one-third of respondents trusted Putin, prompting VTsIOM to cease publishing those figures. In contrast, the closed polling network reported approval above 70 %, highlighting a discrepancy between publicly released data and internal estimates.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Stress-scenario testing is standard practice,” — Source close to the presidential administration
- “Elderly women often open the doors, and young men hang up,” — Sociology lecturer (anonymous)
- “When the people reach their breaking point, polls definitely won't be needed,” — Leader in a Kremlin-aligned organization
- “land on the desk of the sociologists.” — Source at a Kremlin media structure monitoring politicians’ social-media accounts
What’s Next
The internal forecasts are intended to inform Kremlin strategy ahead of the State Duma elections. The network’s selective disclosure continues to guide internal decision-making as economic pressures and the ongoing war remain concerns.
