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Dollar Tops 101, Yen Hits 1986 Low, Fed Hike Likely

6/23/2026

22 5 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The dollar index rose to 101.0, the highest since May 2025, as markets priced a hawkish stance from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
Fed funds futures now show a 75% chance of a September hike and a 34.2% chance of a July hike.
The yen fell to 161.55 per dollar, its weakest since 1986, prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to discuss intervention with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

History

Historical Context

On September 22 1985 the US, Japan, West Germany, France and the UK signed the Plaza Accord to lift the yen and other currencies. The yen rose from ¥240 to ¥160 per dollar in 1986—a 33 % gain—as the dollar fell about 4 % after the pact. The episode shows coordinated policy can swiftly reshape rates, a precedent cited today by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

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Story summary

The dollar index rose to 101.0, the highest since May 2025, as markets priced a hawkish stance from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
Fed funds futures now show a 75% chance of a September hike and a 34.2% chance of a July hike.
The yen fell to 161.55 per dollar, its weakest since 1986, prompting Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to discuss intervention with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

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