Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race: Poll Shows Ken Paxton Holding Narrow Lead Over James Talarico
6/24/2026, 8:10:23 AM
Paxton Holds One-Point Edge in Latest Poll
An University of Texas-Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 registered voters conducted June 5-12 shows Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton at 43 % and Democrat State Rep. James Talarico at 42 %, a one-percentage-point lead within the poll’s roughly 3-point margin of error; 10 % of respondents remain undecided.
Recent Primary and Candidate Background
Paxton won the Senate nomination by beating Sen. John Cornyn in a May 26 runoff, aided by Donald Trump’s endorsement. The win followed Paxton’s 2023 impeachment by Texas House and securities-fraud case. Talarico, 37-year-old Democrat, sought Cornyn supporters and emphasized his Christian faith while denying vegan claims.
Poll Numbers and Voter Demographics
The poll shows 84 % of Republicans back Paxton (up from 63 % in April) and 5 % favor Talarico. Among Democrats, 88 % support Talarico, 1 % Paxton. Independents prefer Talarico 40 % to Paxton 12 %, with 34 % undecided. Paxton leads male voters by nine points; Talarico leads female voters by six and holds a 14-point Hispanic advantage and a two-thirds Black advantage. Paxton’s support rose from 34 % to 43 %; Talarico’s stayed at 42 %.
Campaign Narratives
Paxton’s campaign argues his record defending Texas legal interests equips him to protect the state in the Senate. Talarico’s team stresses continuity with Sen. John Cornyn’s service, asserting that Cornyn’s supporters “have a place in our campaign.”
Criticism and Opposition
Republican critics cite Paxton’s impeachment and securities-fraud case as liabilities for moderate voters. Democratic opponents highlight Talarico’s remarks on gender and diet, portraying him as out of touch, though he counters with a personal anecdote about barbecue.
Conflicting Survey Results
Surveys differ: SoCal Strategies (June 21) gave Paxton 49 %-47 %; Reconnaissance Market Research (June 1-4) showed Talarico 47 %-44 %; Quantus Insights (June 3-4) placed Paxton 45 %-43 %; Texas Public Opinion Research (May 27-28) favored Talarico 47 %-44 %; and a Barbara Jordan poll reported a 45-45 tie. Margins of error of 3-4 points keep the contest statistically volatile.
Verbatim Quotes
- “A Talarico victory will require historic Democratic turnout, a lag in GOP enthusiasm and “decisive” support among independents, suburban voters and Latino voters, he said.” — Joshua Blank, Director, Texas Politics Project.
- “In Texas, the current focus, largely driven by the state's majority, Republican Party, is shifting attention away from the divisiveness of the primary and on to the general election,” — Joshua Blank, Director, Texas Politics Project.
- “I've been eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton's first indictment.” — James Talarico, Texas State Representative.
- “I want to thank Senator John Cornyn for his years representing our state. We don’t agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service. To Senator Cornyn’s supporters: you have a place in our campaign,” — James Talarico, Texas State Representative.
What’s Next
Both campaigns will intensify outreach through October, with additional polls expected before the November 3 general election that will determine the Senate seat and influence the national partisan balance.
