Full Breakdown
Gold and Silver Prices Slip to Seven-Month Lows Amid Fed Rate-Hike Expectations
6/25/2026, 9:00:14 PM
Market Slide: Gold Below $4,000, Silver Near $58
Spot gold fell to $3,961.95 per ounce on the COMEX and to $4,007.65 in the over-the-counter market, the first sub-$4,000 close since November 2025. Silver traded around $58 per ounce, with Reuters reporting $57.65 and Forbes noting $58.44 after a brief dip to $58.09. Over the preceding week gold declined roughly 8 % and silver about 16 %, leaving gold down 28 % from its January 29 peak of $5,594.82 and silver more than 50 % below its $121 high.
Policy Outlook and Dollar Dynamics
The June 17 Federal Reserve meeting, chaired by Kevin Warsh, saw nine of nineteen officials favor at least one rate hike before year-end, shifting the median dot-plot to a 3.75-4.00 % target range. Real yields on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities rose to approximately 2.2 %, while the U.S. dollar index climbed above 100, its strongest level in over a year. CME FedWatch data indicate a 66 % probability of a September hike, an 80 % chance of a December increase, and an 85 % likelihood of a hike before the Fed’s last policy statement. A technology-led equity selloff, amplified by concerns over Micron earnings, further pressured metal prices.
Key Numbers
- Gold: $3,961.95 (COMEX), $4,007.65 (spot) – ? 28 % below January peak.
- Silver: $57.65–$58.44 – ? > 50 % below January peak.
- U.S. PCE inflation: 4.1 % YoY, first reading above 4 % since April 2023.
- Dollar index: 101.77 (Forbes) and > 100 (GoldSilver.com).
- Real 10-year yield: ~2.2 %.
- Oil: Prices returned to pre-war levels after the Iran conflict accord.
Official Responses
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its June meeting but signaled a “hawkish tone,” noting that inflationary pressures remain the primary focus. Market participants interpret the Fed’s communication as a precursor to a 25-basis-point hike later in the year. Treasury yields edged lower after the PCE release, reducing the dollar-price of bullion for overseas buyers. Analysts at Germany’s Commerzbank warned that continued expectations of rate hikes will keep gold depressed.
Dissenting Views
ANZ research highlighted that gold has fallen more than 22 % during the Iran war and “failed to provide any protection against such a big cross-market selloff.” Commerzbank analysts echoed that expectations of further rate hikes sustain downward pressure. Critics argue that the traditional safe-haven narrative for precious metals is weakened by the current environment.
Verbatim Quotes
- “pressured by a stronger dollar amid a technology-led equity selloff.” — Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank
- “When interest rates rise, gravity increases and all assets are pulled down, including precious metals.” — Philippe Gijsels, Chief Strategy Officer, BNP Paribas Fortis
- “PCE data looks like it came in line mostly with expectations. At this point, it's part of the reason why gold is relatively level-headed today,” — David Meger, Director of Metals Trading, High Ridge Futures
- “The main focal point will still remain inflationary pressures moving forward. That's some of the reason why we've seen gold deteriorate over the course of the last several sessions,” — David Meger, High Ridge Futures
- “According to Nikos Tzavaras, a senior market analyst at Tradeweb, owned by Jefferies, the Fed's inclination towards a tighter monetary policy is the main reason for gold's current weakness.” — Nikos Tzavaras, Senior Market Analyst, Tradeweb
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Reuters reported a 0.2 % rebound in gold after the PCE release, while Forbes and Ratopati described continued declines below $4,000. Silver is cited as both up 0.4 % (Reuters, Ratopati) and down nearly 6 % earlier in the day (Forbes). Probability estimates for a Fed hike differ across sources (66 % for September, 80 % for December, 85 % prior to the latest statement). No source provides definitive data on how the resolution of the Iran conflict will affect long-term metal demand.
Outlook
The upcoming May PCE report, expected at 4.1 % YoY, will test market expectations of further Fed tightening. A confirmed 25-basis-point hike would raise the federal funds rate to 3.75-4.00 %, maintaining pressure on gold and silver unless real yields recede. Investors will monitor the dollar index, Treasury yields, and equity-market flows for additional cues on metal-price direction.
