Full Breakdown
China’s Coal Power Rebounds in 2026
6/24/2026, 9:34:18 PM
Coal Power Rebound in 2026
China’s coal-fired power generation is to rise in 2026, ending a decade-long decline.
Background & Renewable Targets
Xi’s 2020 pledge for carbon neutrality by 2060 set a 1,200 GW wind-solar target for 2030, met six years early in 2024. By mid-2023 renewables held over half of capacity, surpassing coal.
Data & Statistics
Thermal power rose 3.4 % YoY to 2.53 trillion kWh in the first five months of 2026 (statistics bureau). S&P and Wood Mackenzie expect coal generation to increase 1.5-2 % to 5.4 trillion kWh; Kpler projects a 3 % rise in coal consumption to 2.7 billion tons. Gas generation is expected to fall 12 % to 300 billion kWh as LNG imports are cut. Coal’s share was 51.4 % in 2025.
Drivers of the Rebound
El Niño heat raises air-conditioning demand; the Iran-related war tightens global energy markets. China’s LNG import cuts shift demand to coal. Renewable output slows because of weak wind, low solar utilisation in western provinces, and fewer new installations. Analysts cite limited battery storage and constrained inter-provincial trade.
Implications
The rebound shows the difficulty of meeting the 2060 carbon-neutral goal as cooling demand and manufacturing raise fossil-fuel use despite transport electrification.
Official Statements
The National Statistics Bureau confirmed the 3.4 % rise in thermal power. Government policy stresses cutting LNG imports to offset Hormuz blockade costs. The 2020 carbon-neutral pledge and 2030 renewable target remain official commitments.
Opposition
Analysts say renewable growth is insufficient to offset demand, citing weak wind, low solar utilisation, and limited grid flexibility. More battery storage and robust electricity-trading mechanisms are needed to deepen decarbonisation.
Conflicts
Forecasts differ: S&P and Wood Mackenzie see a 1.5-2 % coal generation rise, while Kpler expects a 3 % increase in coal tonnage. Renewable slowdown and battery-storage deployment are missing.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Rising prices are also pushing gas into the role of a peak load supplier, meaning it won't be dispatched until power demand spikes, said Sharon Feng, special advisor at Beijing-based consulting firm Azure International.” — Sharon Feng, special advisor, Azure International
- “Air conditioning use is also rising, as El Nino is expected to produce higher-than-normal temperatures this summer, and arebound in exportsis boosting demand from China's power-hungry manufacturing sector, Feng said.” — Sharon Feng, special advisor, Azure International
- “For fossil-power generation to fall this year, clean energy growth would need to exceed growth in power demand, likely to rise again by 5% or more, said Matt Owen, energy system analyst at think tank Ember.” — Matt Owen, energy system analyst, Ember
- “El Nino could potentially also reduce rainfall in China's southwestern hydropower hubs, which would force hydropower importing provinces with high power demand like Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang to use more fossil fuels, Wood Mackenzie analyst Yuxi Wang said.” — Yuxi Wang, analyst, Wood Mackenzie
Next Steps
Analysts say energy capacity must outpace demand to reverse the coal rise. El Niño could further strain hydropower, prompting more fossil dispatch. Policy may shift toward battery storage and inter-provincial electricity trading.
