Full Breakdown
Trump-Backed Businessman Wins GOP Nomination in New York’s 21st Congressional District
6/26/2026, 11:14:34 PM
Primary Outcome and Vote Totals
On June 23, 2026, Anthony Constantino, the Sticker Mule chief executive, secured the Republican nomination for New York’s 21st Congressional District with 58.6 % of the vote (45,215 ballots) against state Assemblymember Robert Smullen, who received 39.8 % (source 13). The result was reported by multiple outlets, with vote shares ranging from 58.6 % to 59 % (sources 5, 13). The district, a solidly Republican area that gave Donald Trump a 24-point margin in 2024, will hold its general election on Nov. 3.
Background: District’s Political Landscape
NY-21 spans more than 16,000 sq mi across the North Country, covering cities such as Rome and Glens Falls and bordering Canada and Vermont. The seat was held by Rep. Elise Stefanik, a Trump ally, who announced she would not seek re-election. Historically the district leans heavily Republican; Trump captured 60 % of the vote in 2024 (source 2).
Key Candidates and Endorsements
- Anthony Constantino – CEO of Sticker Mule, former professional boxer, self-funded his campaign with roughly $10 million, and received endorsements from Donald Trump, Rep. Jim Jordan, and former mayor Rudy Giuliani (source 7).
- Robert Smullen – Four-term Assemblymember, former Marine colonel, backed by the New York State Republican Party, the state Conservative Party, and 13 of the district’s 15 county GOP committees (sources 4, 11, 19).
- Blake Gendebien – Second-generation dairy farmer, Democratic nominee, who won his primary with 65 % of the Democratic vote (source 13).
- Donald Trump – Endorsed Constantino in April and posted a video praising his “fighter” background (sources 4, 5, 6).
Timeline of the Primary Campaign
- April 2026 – Trump’s endorsement of Constantino.
- May 26-31 – Internal poll of 500 likely voters commissioned by Gendebien’s campaign (source 2).
- June 23 – Primary election; Constantino declared winner (sources 1, 13, 20).
- July 3 – Deadline for Smullen to withdraw from the Conservative Party ballot line (source 2).
Data & Statistics
- Internal poll (Impact Research) showed Gendebien at 45 % vs. Constantino 44 % with 11 % undecided; after messaging, Gendebien led 49 %-40 % (source 1).
- Voter registration: ~215,000 Republicans, 133,688 Democrats, 135,200 unaffiliated (source 6).
- Primary turnout: 45,215 Republican votes, 24,300 Democratic votes (source 13).
Official Statements & Responses
State GOP Chair Ed Cox said the primary voters “have spoken” and pledged to support Constantino. The National Republican Congressional Committee’s Maureen O’Toole hailed the victory and warned that the Democratic opponent’s platform would raise taxes and threaten border security. Constantino’s campaign framed the race as a “boxing match,” emphasizing a willingness to “fight with words.” Rep. Stefanik posted on X that she had “seen enough” and expects Constantino to earn voter support. Smullen confirmed his intent to remain on the Conservative line while evaluating his options.
Criticism & Opposition
Constantino’s senior advisor Alex DeGrasse dismissed the internal poll as “totally has no credibility” and attacked Gendebien’s record on gun control and immigration (source 2). Conservative Party chair Gerard Kassar sued Constantino for defamation after the candidate alleged Kassar threatened to kill him (sources 2, 4). Smullen labeled Constantino “unfit” and highlighted the candidate’s “outlandish attacks” and hiring of individuals with criminal histories (source 18).
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
No independent poll of the district exists; the only pre-election data come from a campaign-commissioned survey with a ±4.4 % margin of error. The poll’s close race projection contrasts sharply with the actual 58-% victory margin for Constantino, indicating a discrepancy between internal polling and election outcomes. Smullen’s final decision on the Conservative ballot line remains pending.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Our research has always shown that a wannabe DC insider like Constantino is very beatable in NY-21, but his rapidly increasing negatives had us concerned that we might lose our shot to run against him if he couldn’t keep it together through the primary,” — Luke Martin, Impact Research pollster
- “All my attacks are honest and things that people need to know,” — Anthony Constantino
- “Congratulations to Trump-endorsed Anthony Constantino! In November, voters will reject out of touch Democrat Blake Gendebien’s toxic agenda that will raise taxes, leave our border wide open, and hurt North Country farmers.” — Maureen O’Toole, NRCC spokeswoman
- “I think it's fair to say I wouldn't be here today if it wasn't for President Trump.” — Anthony Constantino
- “Blake Gendebien who supports unconstitutional gun control and is on record calling local workers ‘awful people’ who ‘drink too much,’ he says loves illegal immigrants, and even bailed one out of jail,” — Alex DeGrasse, senior advisor
What’s Next
The general election will feature Constantino versus Gendebien, with the possibility of a three-way contest if Smullen stays on the Conservative line after the July 3 deadline. Both campaigns are targeting unaffiliated voters, who number over 135,000, while the district’s Republican registration advantage suggests a competitive but still GOP-leaning race. The outcome will influence the balance of the House and signal the strength of Trump-aligned candidates in upstate New York.
