Full Breakdown
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz: Traffic Resumes After US-Iran Interim Deal
6/25/2026, 2:44:53 AM
MOU Reopens Hormuz and Triggers Evacuation
On 17 June 2026 the United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding that reopened the Strait of Hormuz, lifted the naval blockade, and waived sanctions on Iranian oil sales through August. The deal authorized the evacuation of more than 11 000 seafarers and allowed the first oil tankers and commercial vessels to transit after a three-month closure.
Background: War Closure and MOU Terms
The strait, handling about 20 % of oil, was sealed after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026. Iran responded by closing the passage, disabling AIS transponders, and leaving millions of barrels stranded, pushing crude above $100 per barrel. The June MOU includes a 60-day cease-fire, de-mining commitments, and a pledge of no tolls.
Traffic Resumption Data
Kpler data show at least 20 tankers carrying 35 million barrels have left the Gulf, including 21 million barrels of Iranian crude. Daily oil flows rose to 4.8 million barrels, below the 15 million bpd before the war. On 23 June 31 vessels crossed; 48 crossed on 24 June, nine were sanctioned. Tanker charter rates reached $190,500 per day.
Official Statements
IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said the operation “has secured the necessary safety guarantees” for evacuations. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright pledged to “ensure the flow of oil through the key waterway.” President Donald Trump announced “no tolls, insurance costs or other charges” for transits, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said tolls would violate international law.
Criticism and Legal Concerns
Analysts warn the MOU lacks compliance mechanisms and that mines threaten the central lane. Tom Kloza called market optimism “overreacting.” James Kraska said any toll regime would breach the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Shipowner Jake Scott cited high insurance costs and crew safety as barriers to wider transits.
Conflicting Data and Uncertainties
Kpler cites 172 vessels crossing since the MOU, while other data show 48 on 24 June and 31 on 23 June. Reported oil volumes vary, from 20 million barrels in a 24-hour window (U.S. Energy Secretary) to 35 million barrels (Kpler). De-mining progress and the timeline for restoring the pre-war lane remain uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We have secured the necessary safety guarantees and have thoroughly verified the conditions for safe navigation to support these operations,” — Arsenio Dominguez, IMO Secretary-General
- “An attack is possible but not likely, and overall risk has decreased following the implementation of the U.S.–Iran Memorandum of Understanding,” — Joint Maritime Information Center
- “Everything’s unpredictable,” — Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy
- “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway.” — Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State
What’s Next
The 60-day cease-fire ends in mid-August, after which parties must negotiate a permanent settlement, complete de-mining, and decide on toll policies. The IMO will keep issuing daily departure updates, while shipowners watch insurance costs and mine-clearance progress before expanding transits beyond the temporary northern and southern corridors.
