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May PCE Index Hits 4.1% Forecast, Stocks Climb

6/25/2026

27 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The U.S. Commerce Department reported the PCE price index rose 0.4% in May, matching the 0.5% increase economists expected.
The annual PCE index stood at 4.1%, in line with estimates.
Core PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-on-year.
At 8:34 a.m. ET, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mins rose 133 points (0.25%), 59.5 points (0.8%) and 679 points (2.3%) respectively.

History

Historical Context

Beginning in 1978, U.S. inflation surged to double-digit levels, driven by the 1979-80 oil price shocks. Newly appointed Fed chair Paul Volcker raised the federal-funds rate from 11.5% to a peak of 17.6% in April 1980, triggering a recession and prompting President Jimmy Carter’s credit-control plan. Today, the Commerce Department’s May 2024 PCE index rose 0.4%, reviving concerns reminiscent of that era.

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Story summary

The U.S. Commerce Department reported the PCE price index rose 0.4% in May, matching the 0.5% increase economists expected.
The annual PCE index stood at 4.1%, in line with estimates.
Core PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-on-year.
At 8:34 a.m. ET, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mins rose 133 points (0.25%), 59.5 points (0.8%) and 679 points (2.3%) respectively.

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