Bristol City Council’s Predictive Risk-Scoring System: Deployment, Scrutiny, and Uncertainty

Bristol City Council commissioned a predictive risk-scoring model that fed data into the police Offender Management App. The system flagged individuals for potential future offending, but council officials later discontinued its use. No public documentation explains how the model operated or why it was scrapped, leaving the extent of its impact unclear.

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Predictive analytics have been promoted as tools to anticipate social outcomes. In Bristol, council leaders asserted that analytics were limited to identifying children at risk of becoming “not in education, employment, or training” (NEET). The broader risk-scoring system, intended for policing purposes, was not publicly disclosed and was reportedly underused by staff.

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• Bristol City Council – governing body responsible for commissioning the model.

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• Christine Townsend – councillor, chair of the Children and Young People Policy Committee, provided the council’s written statement.

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• Davies – senior council staff member who commented on staff reliance on the scores.

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• Social Finance reviewers – external auditors who received inquiries from council workers.

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• John Pegram – individual flagged in the Offender Management App in 2024.

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• Unnamed council worker – raised concerns about public awareness of data use.

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Council officials emphasized that predictive analytics never replaced professional judgment. In a written response, the council denied using risk scores beyond NEET identification. Davies noted that staff “didn’t understand” the scores and therefore “didn’t value” them, suggesting minimal operational impact.

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Council staff and external observers questioned the ethical foundation of the system. A worker asked whether “the people we’re talking about know we have this data,” highlighting a perceived lack of transparency. John Pegram, who was flagged in 2024, argued that “there’s a lot of bias in the police’s data” and that “there are too many issues for it to be done ethically and fairly.”

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Pegram, a mixed-race resident of a predominantly white town, reported dozens of police stops throughout his youth. In 2017 he was arrested at an anti-fascist protest after striking an officer; the officer later described the contact as accidental, but Pegram was convicted of assault. Seven years later, his inclusion in the Offender Management App prompted him to wonder whether the 2017 incident continued to influence his risk profile.

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• Dozens of police stops reported by Pegram.

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• Seven years elapsed between the 2017 protest arrest and the 2024 app confirmation.

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• 2024: Year Pegram received official confirmation of his presence in the Offender Management App.

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No records detail the algorithmic design, weighting of variables, or criteria for flagging individuals. The council has not disclosed why the system was discontinued, and staff admissions suggest limited reliance, creating a gap between the system’s intended purpose and its actual use.

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• “This administration does not use any predictive analytics apart from helping to identify children who are at risk of becoming not in education, employment, or training after finishing school (NEET),” — Christine Townsend, Councillor

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• “The use of analytics has never replaced professional human judgment or decision-making.” — Christine Townsend, Councillor

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• “They weren't really using it to support their judgments, because they didn’t understand it and they didn’t value it,” — Davies, Council Staff

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• “Something that’s always on my mind—do the people we’re talking about know we have this data?” — Unnamed Council Worker

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• “There’s a lot of bias in the police’s data,” — John Pegram, Offender Management App User

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• “I’ve been here before, and I know what you’re trying to do to me.” — John Pegram, Offender Management App User

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The undisclosed nature of the risk-scoring model raises questions about accountability, especially when individuals allege that historical encounters continue to affect present assessments. Perceived bias and lack of oversight can erode public confidence in both local government and policing practices.

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Bristol City Council has declined interview requests and has not provided further documentation. The absence of records may prompt external audits or legislative inquiries into the use of predictive analytics in public safety.

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